The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) delivered a landmark verdict on August 8, 2025, unequivocally affirming Pakistan’s rights under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The court ruled that India must "let flow" the waters of the western rivers (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum) for Pakistan’s unrestricted use, strictly limiting exceptions for hydroelectric projects to treaty-defined parameters, not India’s self-serving "ideal standards". This decision validates Pakistan’s six-decade stance that India cannot manipulate river flows to strangle downstream agriculture, which sustains 80% of Pakistan’s farmlands.
The award imposes critical design constraints on India’s hydroelectric ambitions. It is mandatory for India to prevent sediment manipulation and sudden water withholding, addressing Pakistan’s fears of artificial droughts. It also caps reservoir storage at twice the volume needed for "firm power," blocking India from hoarding water during lean seasons. The PCA emphasized India bears the burden of proving compliance, rejecting its "best practices" arguments as treaty violations.
The ruling explicitly nullifies India’s April 2025 suspension of the IWT; a punitive move after the Pahalgam attack, which India baselessly blamed on Pakistan. The court’s June supplemental award had already declared India cannot unilaterally hold the treaty "in abeyance", stressing such actions violate the IWT’s dispute mechanism. Despite India boycotting proceedings and dismissing the PCA as "illegal," the court meticulously reviewed historical evidence, prior Indian submissions, and Pakistan’s technical arguments to uphold jurisdiction.
The award recognizes Pakistan’s vulnerability as the downstream riparian state, affirming the IWT’s purpose is to "delimit rights and obligations" amid potential conflict over "critical shared resources". By declaring PCA rulings "final, binding, and controlling" over future neutral experts or courts, it prevents India from forum-shopping. Pakistan’s Foreign Office hailed this as a diplomatic triumph, urging India to resume treaty compliance and cease "weaponizing water".
While the award addresses general treaty interpretation, specific applications to the Kishenganga and Ratle dams remain pending. Pakistan reiterated commitment to the IWT’s full implementation, demanding India honor its obligations. As climate change exacerbates water scarcity, the PCA’s emphasis on "mutual cooperation" and "downstream vulnerability" sets a global precedent for transboundary water justice.