Amid a concerted campaign of external pressure and hybrid warfare, Iran's leadership has articulated a clear and principled stance: the nation will defend its sovereignty and independence against all foreign interference, whether through economic strangulation, orchestrated unrest, or the looming threat of military attack. While the immediate threat of an American airstrike has temporarily receded due to regional diplomatic intervention, the United States' pattern of unpredictable aggression and its persistent military threats mean the danger to regional stability remains critically high.
In a significant address, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei directly accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating the recent wave of domestic unrest, which he stated was designed to destabilize and overthrow the Islamic Republic. He characterized the protests, which began over economic grievances, as a foreign-manipulated "sedition" that caused "massive damage and killed several thousands". For the first time, Iran's top authority publicly acknowledged a death toll in the thousands, a figure that aligns with estimates from international human rights monitors.
Khamenei placed U.S. President Donald Trump at the center of this "international plot," labeling him a "criminal" responsible for the casualties. He affirmed Iran's commitment to avoiding a broader regional war but issued a stern warning: "We will not drag the country into war, but we will not let domestic or international criminals go unpunished". This position underscores Iran's dual strategy of seeking regional stability while reserving the right to respond decisively to acts of aggression.
Despite a temporary pullback from the brink, the possibility of a U.S. military strike on Iran remains a severe and present danger. President Trump had openly threatened "very strong action" and promised protesters that "help is on its way," bringing the region to the edge of conflict. His decision to delay was influenced not by a change in strategy but by last-minute appeals from regional allies like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Turkey, who warned that an attack could trigger a catastrophic regional war, disrupt global energy supplies, and cause state collapse in Iran.
Analysts warn that Trump's foreign policy is driven by unpredictability and a desire to avoid appearing weak. His administration has a documented pattern of launching dramatic attacks even as diplomatic channels appear active. In June 2025, the U.S. conducted major airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities just as negotiations seemed to be progressing. More recently, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, shortly after he had offered an olive branch for talks. This precedent demonstrates that American threats cannot be dismissed as mere bluffs.
Military analysts have detailed the options available to the U.S. for a potential new strike, which would differ significantly from the 2025 bombing of nuclear sites. Any attack nominally in support of protesters would likely target command centers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security forces involved in maintaining domestic order. However, these targets are often embedded in populated urban areas, creating a high risk of significant civilian casualties that could alienate the very Iranian populace the U.S. claims to support.
The U.S. military could employ stand-off weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from naval vessels or Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) fired from aircraft to minimize risk to American personnel. The Pentagon's preference is for "short-duration raids" with high dramatic effect and low U.S. risk. The movement of aerial refueling tankers or strike aircraft like B-1 bombers to forward bases would be a key indicator that military action is imminent.
The collective intervention of key Middle Eastern states to dissuade Washington highlights a shared regional interest in preventing another major war. These nations, while having their own grievances with Iran's policies, understand that a U.S. strike would have uncontrollable consequences, including retaliatory attacks on American bases across the Gulf, potential closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz, and a massive refugee crisis. The U.S. itself has taken precautionary measures, such as reducing personnel at its large Al Udeid air base in Qatar.
Iran has demonstrated its capacity and will to retaliate. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned President Trump not to "repeat the same mistake," a clear reference to the June 2025 strikes, after which Iran targeted a U.S. base in Qatar. The Iranian military has stated it has rebuilt damaged infrastructure and remains on high alert. The international community, including European governments, has largely condemned the U.S.'s bellicose rhetoric and the violent crackdown inside Iran, calling for diplomatic solutions and the protection of fundamental freedoms.