US President Donald Trump has announced he expects an expansion of the Abraham Accords to occur soon, expressing particular hope that Saudi Arabia will join the pact. “I hope to see Saudi Arabia go in, and I think when Saudi Arabia goes in, everybody goes in,” Trump stated in a recent television interview, framing the accords as a “miracle” for regional peace . This push for expansion comes just a week after a fragile, comprehensive ceasefire took hold in Gaza, with Trump presenting his administration's peace efforts as a catalyst for a wider regional settlement . The Abraham Accords, a cornerstone of Trump's first-term foreign policy, previously led to the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan .
Despite US optimism, the path to further normalization is fraught with significant challenges. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly asserted that its recognition of Israel is conditional on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance that has only hardened in the wake of the war in Gaza . Furthermore, Israeli actions, including reported plans to annex parts of the West Bank, have been labeled a “red line” by key Arab states like the UAE . The recent war in Gaza has also triggered a dramatic shift in Arab public opinion, with one poll showing 81% of Saudis now view normalization negatively, making it politically costly for Arab leaders to pursue such ties without a concrete resolution for the Palestinians .
The international community is simultaneously advancing efforts to solidify Palestinian statehood. A recent high-level UN conference in New York, co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, saw several European nations commit to recognizing Palestine . UN Secretary-General António Guterres used the platform to powerfully reaffirm that statehood for Palestinians is "a right, not a reward" and condemned the "collective punishment of the Palestinian people" and "creeping threat of annexation" in the West Bank . These developments highlight the growing global consensus that prioritizes a two-state solution, creating a complex diplomatic environment for the US-led normalization drive.
The regional context for the Abraham Accords has evolved significantly since 2020. A Saudi-Iranian détente brokered by China in 2023 reduced the immediate imperative for some Arab states to align with Israel as a hedge against Iran . Meanwhile, Iran, though critical of the accords, has expressed a commitment to diplomacy following the Gaza ceasefire . Russian President Vladimir Putin has also acted as an intermediary, stating that Israel has signaled a desire to avoid a new military confrontation with Iran and favors a diplomatic resolution . This opening provides Iran with a potential opportunity to recalibrate its regional role after the war in Gaza diminished the capabilities of its allied "Axis of Resistance" .