War in Gaza: The Genocide that 'Shall Not be Named'

Counting Death toll in Gaza

By June 19, 2024, an estimated 37,396 people had been killed in the Gaza Strip since October 2023, according to a report by Rasha Khatib published in The Lancet titled "Counting the Dead in Gaza: Difficult but Essential." Now, more than a year after publishing this article, the death toll is likely over 100,000.

The Gaza Health Ministry faces increasing difficulties in tracking casualties due to the widespread destruction of infrastructure. Traditionally, the Ministry's reports relied on hospital records and bodies brought in for identification. However, with many medical facilities and morgues in ruins, it has been forced to incorporate data from media sources and first responders, which has inevitably reduced the level of detail in casualty reports. As a result, the Ministry now separately lists unidentified bodies in its official death toll. As of May 10, 2024, 30% of the 35,091 reported deaths were unidentified.

While Israeli authorities have contested these figures, they have been validated by Israeli intelligence services, the United Nations (UN), and the World Health Organization (WHO). Independent analyses, such as a comparison of deaths among UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) staff with Ministry reports, have found no evidence of data fabrication. Despite this, some officials and media outlets have sought to undermine the credibility of the numbers.

The nongovernmental organization Airwars, which conducts independent assessments of conflicts, has found that not all identified victims appear in the Health Ministry's records, suggesting an undercount. The UN estimates that by February 29, 2024, 35% of Gaza’s buildings had been destroyed, leaving a significant number of bodies still buried under rubble potentially more than 10,000. Historical data from past conflicts suggest that indirect deaths caused by factors such as famine, disease, and lack of medical care often outnumber direct deaths by three to 15 times. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death, the total death toll in Gaza could reach 186,000 or more. This would represent approximately 7.9% of Gaza’s 2022 population of 2.37 million.

A February 7, 2024 report estimated that if the conflict continued without a ceasefire, the total number of deaths could range between 58,260 (without an epidemic or further escalation) and 85,750 (if both occurred) by August 6, 2024.

Definition of Genocide in International Law

The 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide defines genocide as the denial of the right to existence for entire human groups, much as homicide is the denial of an individual's right to live. The Convention states that such acts "shock the conscience of mankind," cause irreparable cultural and societal losses, and violate both moral law and the principles of the United Nations. Throughout history, genocide has occurred when racial, religious, political, or other groups have been targeted for destruction, either in whole or in part.

According to Article II of the Convention, genocide consists of specific acts committed with the intent to eliminate, entirely or partially, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group. These acts include:

• Killing members of the group

• Inflicting serious bodily or mental harm on members of the group

• Deliberately creating conditions intended to bring about the group's physical destruction

• Imposing measures to prevent births within the group

• Forcibly transferring children from the group to another group

While the general public often views genocide in broader terms, international law defines it narrowly, requiring two key elements:

1. Intent (Mens Rea): A deliberate objective to destroy, in whole or in part, a protected group.

2. Action (Actus Reus): One or more of the five acts explicitly listed in Article II.

Intent is the most complex element to establish in genocide cases. Perpetrators must be shown to have the specific goal of physically annihilating a group, rather than merely dispersing or culturally suppressing it. This concept, known as dolus specialis (special intent), distinguishes genocide from other crimes. Legal precedents suggest that intent is often linked to the existence of a coordinated state or organizational policy, even though the Convention itself does not explicitly require such a policy for an act to qualify as genocide.

Furthermore, genocide targets a group as an entity rather than individuals within it. The victims are deliberately chosen based on their actual or perceived membership in a protected group. The crime can apply even when only a portion of the group is affected, provided that portion is both identifiable and substantial, including within a specific geographic region.

"Totality Triple Lens" Genocide Analysis by Francesca Albanese

The UN Special Rapporteur of Occupied Palestinian Territory, Francesca Albanese, has introduced the "Totality Triple Lens," a framework to identify genocide by examining three key aspects of Israeli conduct: the broader political context of Israel’s territorial ambitions, the destruction inflicted on the Palestinian people, and the underlying motives that obscure explicit intent. This analysis is divided into three:

Totality of the Land: “Greater Israel”
The vision of a "Greater Israel" (Eretz Yisrael), which aims to consolidate Jewish sovereignty over both Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, has been a longstanding objective since the inception of the Zionist movement. The Palestinian right to self-determination and their significant presence in these territories have posed both legal and demographic obstacles to this goal. Successive Israeli governments have pursued this ambition, often at the expense of the indigenous Palestinian population.

Even after the Oslo Accords, which were intended to advance a two-state solution, Israel continued expanding its settlements. The number of Israeli colonies grew from 128 to 358, while the settler population rose from 256,400 to 714,600. The 2018 Nation-State Law further cemented Jewish sovereignty over Eretz Yisrael, prioritizing settlement expansion. On December 28, 2022, the Israeli government announced plans to expand West Bank settlements, accelerating land confiscation efforts.

Palestinian self-determination has been framed as a security threat, legitimizing a policy of permanent occupation. Systematic displacement and dehumanization of Palestinians have persisted from 1947–1949 to the present. The October 7, 2023, attacks provided an opportunity to further this agenda. Calls for the displacement of Palestinians to neighboring Arab nations increased, alongside efforts to colonize and annex Gaza. A leaked Israeli Ministry of Intelligence document from October 2023 outlined a proposal to expel Gaza’s entire population to Egypt, a strategy openly supported by segments of Israel’s governing coalition. Meanwhile, settlement expansion and annexation in the West Bank have intensified.

Totality of the Group: Destruction of the Palestinian People
Since October 7, 2023, Palestinian casualties have escalated dramatically. Systematic killings, destruction of family lineages, and targeting of children have rendered the occupied Palestinian territories increasingly uninhabitable. Entire communities, including homes, schools, places of worship, and hospitals, have been decimated.

The destruction extends beyond physical infrastructure to essential life-sustaining services. The targeting of healthcare, food security, and water and sanitation infrastructure has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. In Gaza, starvation, disease, and forced displacement have become widespread, with no prospect of safe return. This systematic degradation of public health functions as a method of "genocide by attrition." More than 500,000 children are now without access to education, with 88,000 students unable to attend university. The psychological trauma of war and displacement further compounds the suffering of Palestinians, particularly those who have already endured previous cycles of violence. Repeated forced displacements have severed ties to the land, dismantling cultural identity and social cohesion.

The Israeli government has also suppressed Palestinians within Israel, referring to them as "enemies within." Furthermore, attacks on the United Nations, particularly UNRWA, threaten the socioeconomic stability of millions of Palestinian refugees in the region. These patterns suggest a broader strategy aimed at dismantling the Palestinian people’s ability to sustain themselves as a group.

Totality of the Conduct: Genocidal Intent Rationalized as Self-Defense
Despite the scale of destruction, Israel maintains that its military operations are aimed at eliminating Hamas and securing the release of hostages. However, these objectives do not negate the possibility of genocidal intent. Legal precedents indicate that genocide can occur within the context of armed conflict. The existence of multiple motives—such as security concerns or territorial ambitions—does not preclude the presence of genocidal intent.

Israel has framed its actions in Gaza as self-defense and counterterrorism. However, under international law, an occupying power is obligated to protect, rather than target, the population under its control. Israel’s continued defiance of the International Court of Justice's directive to end its occupation contradicts Palestinian rights to self-determination and resistance against oppression, rights that are protected under customary international law.

The dehumanization of Palestinians has reached unprecedented levels. Israeli military operations have targeted not only Hamas operatives but also civilians, local government officials, and civil servants. The scale and frequency of civilian casualties highlight the systematic nature of this destruction. Among the most harrowing cases are the killing of six-year-old Hind Rajab, who was shot 355 times after pleading for help; the fatal mauling of Muhammed Bhar, a young man with Down syndrome; and the execution of deaf elderly man Atta Ibrahim Al-Muqaid in his home, which was later celebrated on social media. Additionally, premature infants left to die in Al-Nasr Hospital’s intensive care unit and other documented civilian killings underscore the indiscriminate nature of the violence.

Israel's handling of hostage rescues has also raised concerns. More hostages have been killed by Israeli airstrikes or friendly fire than have been successfully rescued. The Israeli government’s reluctance to prioritize ceasefire negotiations has further jeopardized hostages. Statements by Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, suggest that territorial control over Gaza has taken precedence over securing hostage releases.

As the conflict continues, the full scale of devastation in Gaza remains to be seen. However, the widespread destruction, systematic displacement, and targeting of civilians provide strong indications of a broader intent that extends beyond military objectives, raising serious concerns about violations of international law, and the possibility of an ongoing genocide.