In recent years, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of People's Republic of China has carried out numerous military activities around Taiwan. Some of these activities are simple patrols to maintain military pressure, while others are war games that clearly simulate possible military action against Taiwan. Taiwan's military and political leadership has repeatedly expressed concerns that such war games could quickly escalate into a full-fledged invasion.
For the People's Liberation Army, turning drills into an attack doesn't take as much time as we imagined in the past.Taiwanese Defence Minister Wellington Koo
This makes conducting military exercises at a time of high PLA activity a vital means of practical deterrence for Taiwan. But the PLA's increased activity and the expansion of its arsenal means Taiwan needs to scale up its response, as reflected in the latest exercises.
The entire territory of the Republic of China consists of various islands, with Taiwan being the largest of them. This gives a significant combat advantage to the defenders, especially considering the different coastal conditions. The most favorable beaches for amphibious invasion are located in the north and south of Taiwan Island, and defense exercises have been held there for many years.
However, the expansion of the PLA and especially two remarkable tools in its arsenal means that Taiwan will now have to consider other locations on its coast as possible sites for a major amphibious operation.
The first such tool actively used by the PLA is civilian Roll-on/Roll-off (Ro-Ro) ships. China is heavily investing in such ships for purely commercial purposes. But Ro-Ro ships provide the PLA with large transport capacity and logistic capabilities in addition to the commercial purpose. These ships are considered an integral part of the PLA's logistics system and are used in many exercises. Their shortcomings stem from their original commercial purpose - lack of protection and speed. They will likely become priority targets for Taiwan's anti-ship missiles. Also, using them alone is not enough to ensure a safe landing on Taiwan's coast.
Here comes the second tool, a recent addition to the PLA arsenal: purpose-built barges with a long retractable bridge capable of reaching over soft sand and rocks. In some places in Taiwan, using a combination of such barges and Ro-Ro ships will allow PLA troops to land directly on highways.
Countering these developments requires Taiwan to make qualitative and quantitative changes to its armed forces, that's why Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te has said on March 20 that the Taiwan's defence budget will exceed 3 per cent of its economic output.
These exercises are not long-planned annual exercises, known as Han Kuang Exercise, but despite this, they were conducted across the country on a large scale.
The exercise focused on maintaining air superiority and air defense, logistics to ensure timely supply of ammunition and fuel to troops, blocking PLA Navy ships from landing on the coast, and countering landings if they do occur, especially on the vulnerable beaches in the north and south of the island. The fortification of these beaches was carried out by military engineers who deployed anti-tank hedgehogs, breakwater concrete blocks and booby traps along shores and roads to disrupt potential enemy advances.
The Republic of China Navy and the Republic of China Air Force conducted a number of operations, including preparations for open combat with enemy ships. This is especially important in situation where the PLA Navy is deploying more and more warships and using numerous civilian vessels to provide logistics.
Along with modern weapons, some obsolete weapons, such CM-11 Brave Tiger main battle tanks, were actively used. These tanks have long been in need of modernization, which will probably also become possible with an increase in the defense budget.
The Taiwanese military did not demonstrate significant maneuvers of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during the exercise and there were no demonstrations of electronic warfare (EW) exercises or measures to counter Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs). Such vehicles saw intensive combat use in the Black Sea theatre of the Russo-Ukrainian War and achieved impressive results.
It is known that the PLA pays significant attention to the development of unmanned systems, both UAVs and USVs, so Taiwan's lack of attention to this fields may raise some questions.
The absence of a demonstration of EW training can be explained by the secrecy of this field. UAVs are being gradually introduced into Taiwan's armed forces and the UAV training center was officially opened on January 17 at the Neijiao base in Tainan. It is probably too early to expect any big results from it. The use of this and other weapons may be demonstrated during exercises to be held this summer.
Taiwan conducts the Han Kuang Exercise every year. Scheduled for July 9-18, this year's exercise will include joint operations between all branches of the Republic of China Armed Forces.
This year's exercises will be conducted with 2027 in mind as the year of a possible Chinese invasion. For the first time in the history of the exercises, a specific date was indicated. Previously, several US officials and experts predicted this year as the year of a possible major Chinese attack on Taiwan. This prediction is based on an analysis of the PLA's military buildup and the political situation in the region and the world.
However, there is no indication that China has chosen a military solution to the crisis as the only one and sees 2027 as the deadline for an invasion. Tensions over Taiwan will undoubtedly continue to rise, with both sides working to modernize their militaries.