Amid rising tensions in the Baltic Sea, the Kremlin on Wednesday vowed to protect its maritime interests "by all available means" following an attempt by the Estonian Navy to seize a Russian-linked vessel earlier this week.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the failed seizure of the ship was thwarted thanks to the intervention of a Russian Su-35 fighter jet, which escorted the vessel into Russian territorial waters. Peskov warned that Russia is prepared to take “tough action” if similar provocations occur again.
The incident reportedly involved the Gabon-flagged cargo ship JAGUAR, which was targeted by Estonia with assistance from Polish aircraft last Thursday. The operation was halted after the Russian fighter jet was deployed. NATO later claimed the aircraft briefly entered NATO airspace, further exacerbating regional tensions.
In a swift response, Russia detained a Greek-owned oil tanker in Russian territorial waters on Sunday after it left Estonia. The vessel had reportedly departed from an Estonian port. Though the tanker was released shortly afterward, the incident sent a strong diplomatic signal.
The standoff follows increasing speculation since 2023 that Estonia might seek to restrict Russian maritime access to the Baltic Sea — a development fueled by Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, which has significantly increased the alliance’s influence over the region.
Estonia has cited the threat of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” — vessels operating without Western insurance due to sanctions — as justification for targeting Russian-affiliated ships.
The prospect of further maritime confrontations has sparked concerns in global oil markets, given Russia’s status as the second-largest oil exporter in the world. Any serious disruption of oil transit through the Baltic could have widespread economic repercussions.
In anticipation of such scenarios, Russia has accelerated construction of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) — a strategic trade route linking St. Petersburg to India via Iran and the Caspian Sea. The route is designed to bypass Western-dominated shipping lanes, such as the Baltic Sea and the Suez Canal, potentially reducing both transit time and costs.
Analysts believe that once fully operational, the corridor could become a dominant Eurasian trade artery, further insulating Russian energy exports and commerce from Western sanctions and naval pressure.
As tensions continue to simmer, the Baltic Sea — now increasingly encircled by NATO members — is becoming a new flashpoint in the broader East-West geopolitical confrontation.