The Ukrainian Army is facing a deepening internal crisis as desertions reach unprecedented levels, threatening the stability of Kiev’s military capabilities amid continued Russian advances across the front.
According to a report published by the BBC on Saturday, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office recorded 21,602 cases of desertion within the armed forces, equivalent to roughly 40 battalions. The figure represents a more than 20 percent increase since June, when around 17,000 desertions were reported. If the trend continues, total desertions could approach 200,000 by the end of the year, marking one of the most severe collapses in troop discipline since the start of the conflict.
The report further noted that fewer than 5 percent of deserters return voluntarily to their units, underscoring a growing collapse in morale across the front lines.
Analysts point to several factors driving this surge in desertions. Kiev is now relying almost entirely on forcibly mobilized conscripts, often detained on the streets and pressed into service to fill depleted ranks. The highly motivated volunteer units that formed the backbone of Ukraine’s early war effort in 2022 and 2023 have largely been attrited through casualties and exhaustion following the failed summer counteroffensive of 2023.
With Ukraine reportedly conscripting around 30,000 men per month, the October desertion figures suggest the military is now shrinking rather than replenishing its forces. Combined with mounting battlefield losses, the numbers paint a bleak picture of a military increasingly unable to sustain long-term operations.
Compounding the crisis, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has come under renewed Russian attack. On Saturday, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s televised interview was briefly interrupted after a power outage struck the presidential office in Kiev, highlighting the growing strain on both the front lines and the home front.