Russia’s capture this week of the Shevchenko lithium deposit in Ukraine’s Donetsk region has thrown the viability of the U.S.-Ukraine "Minerals Deal" into disarray, as fears over Russia seizing key mineral assets have now materialized.
The Shevchenko mine—described as the largest lithium deposit in Europe—is estimated to contain roughly 500,000 tons of lithium and previously accounted for approximately 50% of Ukraine’s known lithium reserves. Lithium is a critical component in lithium-ion batteries, widely used in electric vehicles (EVs) and other high-tech sectors.
In April, the U.S. and Ukraine signed the so-called "Minerals Deal," creating a joint investment fund focused on Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. The deal relied heavily on revenues from Ukraine’s vast natural resources, particularly its rare earth minerals, to fund Ukraine’s share of the investment. The Shevchenko mine was projected to yield as much as $350 billion in future earnings, making it one of Ukraine’s most valuable economic assets—especially for securing U.S. military and economic assistance.
However, with Russia now in control of the deposit, the future of the agreement is in question.
Speaking to The New York Times on Friday, Mykhailo Zhernov, director of U.S.-based Critical Metals Corp—which previously held a license to exploit the Shevchenko mine and took part in the Minerals Deal negotiations—warned of the deal’s vulnerability. “If Russian troops go further, capture more and more territory, they will control more and more mineral deposits… It’s an issue for this deal,” he said.
Russia also controls another key lithium deposit: the Krutaya Balka site in the southern Zaphorizhia region, seized during the early phase of the Russian military campaign in 2022. That site is believed to contain another 10–20% of Ukraine’s lithium reserves.
This is not the first time lithium has been at the center of U.S. foreign economic strategy. In 2017, during his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump made an informal agreement with then-Afghan President Ashraf Ghani that American firms would help develop Afghanistan’s rare earth mineral resources—including lithium—in exchange for continued U.S. assistance. That arrangement never fully materialized, but it reflected Washington’s growing concern over securing access to critical minerals.
The fall of the Shevchenko mine to Russian control marks a major setback not only for Ukraine’s resource strategy but for Washington’s long-term plans to shape the global critical minerals market.