In a significant departure from his previous stance, U.S. President Donald Trump declared on Tuesday that Ukraine could, with European and NATO support, win back all territory lost to Russia since the 2022 invasion. The announcement, made on his Truth Social platform following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the UN General Assembly, marks a notable shift in tone from the American leader, who had previously suggested that territorial concessions would be necessary to end the conflict .
The Shift in Rhetoric
President Trump's new position represents a dramatic pivot. For much of the year, he had framed Ukraine as being at a military disadvantage, stating in a February meeting with Zelenskyy that Kyiv did not "have the cards right now" to win a war of attrition . As recently as August, after a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Trump spoke of complicated "swapping of territories" as part of a potential deal . His latest statement, however, criticizes Russia's prosecution of the war, describing it as fighting "aimlessly" and suggesting a "real military power" would have achieved victory quickly, even referring to Russia as a potential "paper tiger" . The practical implications of this rhetorical shift remain unclear, as Trump simultaneously emphasized that the financial burden for this effort must fall on Europe and NATO, with the U.S. role limited to supplying weapons to the alliance .
The Russian Economic Context
A key pillar of Trump's argument is that "Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble," presenting an opportunity for Ukraine . While recent economic data indicates headwinds, the situation is complex. Russia's official 2025 growth forecast has been slashed to 1.5%, a sharp deceleration from the previous year's 4.3% . The economy is technically in a recession after two consecutive quarters of contraction, and inflation, though cooling, remains high, prompting the central bank to maintain a key interest rate of 18% . President Putin has publicly acknowledged the need to avoid a recession but has also denied that the economy is stagnating, highlighting its resilience and low debt to GDP ratio . This suggests that while facing significant pressure from military spending and sanctions, the Russian economy retains capacities to sustain its war effort.
Strategic Ambiguity
Alongside his comments on Ukraine's potential victory, Trump reiterated a stance that has caused concern among allies: that NATO should shoot down Russian aircraft encroaching on their airspace . However, when questioned on whether the U.S. would back its allies in the event of an escalation, Trump stated it would "depend on the circumstance," introducing a degree of strategic ambiguity . Furthermore, he used his UN speech to criticize NATO members who continue to import Russian energy, accusing them of "funding a war against themselves" and demanding an immediate cessation . This highlights ongoing divisions within the alliance, with countries like Hungary stating that a swift cut-off from Russian energy is physically impossible due to infrastructure dependencies .
A Calculated Pressure Campaign
This evolution in rhetoric can be seen as a response to the stagnation of Trump's diplomatic efforts. His attempt to broker a deal following the Alaska summit with Putin failed to materialize, with Russia instead increasing its attacks . By publicly boosting Ukraine's maximalist goals and highlighting Russia's economic challenges, Trump may be attempting to pressure Putin back to the negotiating table from a position of perceived Western unity and resolve. The ultimate goal likely remains a negotiated settlement, but now framed around the possibility of a Ukrainian victory rather than compromise. The coming weeks will reveal whether this new posture influences the calculus in Moscow.