U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for Russia to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire expires today, raising questions about whether new sanctions will target Moscow’s oil trade.
Trump has voiced growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, initially setting a 50-day ultimatum in mid-July before shortening it to 10 days due to a lack of diplomatic progress.
The U.S. is pushing for a trilateral summit involving Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, though Trump emphasized that a meeting with Zelenskyy is not a prerequisite for discussions with Putin.
“They would like to meet with me and I'll do whatever I can to stop the killing,” Trump said on Thursday.
Uncertainty surrounds the potential imposition of “secondary sanctions” on countries purchasing Russian oil, with Trump signaling steep tariffs of up to 100% on Moscow’s trade partners.
A recent executive order already doubled tariffs on India, a key buyer of Russian oil, to 25%, reflecting Trump’s strategy to pressure nations facilitating Russia’s economy.
Russia’s economy, heavily reliant on oil exports, faces further strain under these proposed measures, with growth projected to slow to 1.4% this year from 4.3% in 2024, according to World Bank forecasts.
Moscow’s demands, including Ukraine abandoning NATO ambitions and ceding annexed territories, remain major obstacles to a ceasefire, as Kyiv and its Western allies reject these conditions.
On Wednesday, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow, a meeting Trump described as “highly productive.”
“Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come,” Trump said.
Despite this, Putin has shown little willingness to compromise, and Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, have dismissed Trump’s ultimatums as escalatory.
“Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war,” Medvedev wrote on social media.
The White House remains cautious, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stating that ongoing diplomatic discussions with Russia, Ukraine, and European allies will not be detailed publicly.
Trump’s rhetoric has hardened, a shift from his earlier claims of resolving the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking office, citing his personal rapport with Putin.
“I’m not so interested in talking anymore. He talks, we have such nice conversations, such respectful and nice conversations, and then people die the following night,” Trump said.
The potential sanctions target Russia’s oil exports, critical to its sanctions-hit economy, and could disrupt global markets by forcing buyers like India to choose between Russian oil and U.S. trade benefits.
Analysts note Trump’s reluctance to directly sanction Putin, instead targeting allies like India, which complicates U.S. relations with key partners amid broader geopolitical concerns.
As the deadline passes, the world awaits Trump’s next move, with the prospect of a Trump-Putin meeting looming but no clear resolution in sight for the ongoing Ukraine conflict.