The War That Was Supposed to Last Weeks
When President Donald Trump launched the military campaign against Iran on February 28, he declared that his “little excursion” would be over in “four to five weeks.” More than six months later, the conflict has not only failed to produce a quick victory but has evolved into a protracted war of attrition, exacting a heavy price on the United States both militarily and economically. Trump has repeatedly referred to the conflict as a “detour” and an “excursion,” but the reality on the ground tells a very different story. According to Axios, Trump has indicated on at least 12 separate occasions that the war was about to end, yet each prediction has proven premature. From claims that US objectives had largely been met to assertions that a deal was “very close,” the administration has consistently projected optimism that has failed to materialise.
In late April, Trump acknowledged there was “no time frame” for the war to wind up, and by September, Vice President JD Vance was still steering clear of predicting an end before the midterm elections. On Wednesday, Trump offered his latest forecast: the war will end “immediately after” the November 3 midterm elections because Iran “can’t hold out any longer.” Whether this prediction proves any more accurate than its predecessors remains to be seen.
The Military Toll
The human cost of the war for the United States has been significant. According to Pentagon data, 18 US service members have been killed and 757 wounded since the conflict began. By early September, that figure had risen to 820 wounded, with 18 confirmed dead. The Pentagon has reported that at least three US personnel were killed in Iranian attacks within a two week period alone in July. Experts, however, suggest the actual toll on US and Israeli forces is far higher, accusing both sides of censoring their casualty figures. Beyond the personnel losses, the war has severely depleted American military resources. The Pentagon has reported that the conflict has inflicted billions of dollars in damage on US bases and severely depleted missile stockpiles.
The Trump administration requested $87.6 billion in supplemental spending from Congress in June, including $21 billion for munitions, $17.3 billion for operational costs, $2.4 billion for drones, and $12.1 billion for other classified programs. The 2027 defence budget has surged to $1.5 trillion, reflecting the enormous strain the war has placed on America’s military apparatus. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, the US and Israel have carried out at least 3,580 strikes against Iran over the past six months, while Iran has launched at least 2,053 attacks on targets in the Persian Gulf states and elsewhere across West Asia, a total of more than 5,500 recorded strikes.
$375 Billion and Climbing
The financial cost of the war has been staggering. By late July, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the war had already cost $37.5 billion in direct military spending, an increase of nearly $8 billion since the last public estimate. In May, the Pentagon had estimated the cost at $29 billion. Trump administration officials estimated that the first six days of the war alone cost at least $11.3 billion. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies has estimated that the war has cost the Defence Department approximately $40 billion in ammunition consumption, equipment destruction, and base damage, excluding operational costs already covered by the department’s $1 trillion 2026 budget.
Beyond direct military spending, the broader economic impact has been immense. Moody’s Analytics has calculated that the war has cost American consumers and taxpayers approximately $132 billion in losses, a figure that continues to grow. The war has increased pressure on military budgets and weapons inventories while contributing to higher energy prices across the board.
The Burden on American Consumers
For ordinary Americans, the war has translated into a punishing cost of living crisis. According to a real time estimate from Brown University’s Watson School, the Iran war has already cost US consumers more than $100 billion in higher gasoline and diesel prices, with the tab continuing to climb by roughly $1 million every two minutes. The average US household has paid an additional $763 for fuel since the conflict began. Gasoline has risen from $2.98 per gallon when the war began to approximately $4.22, a 39 per cent increase, while diesel has climbed from $3.67 to a record $5.94 per gallon, adding roughly $45.5 billion to what Americans have spent compared with the no-war trajectory.
The impact has been particularly severe in Texas, where consumers have paid about $11 billion more for gasoline and diesel since the war began, followed by California with approximately $8 billion and Florida with roughly $5 billion. Higher fuel and transportation costs are feeding inflation and raising concerns about shortages of essential goods. Mortgage interest rates have climbed steadily toward 7 per cent, and companies have begun implementing shipping surcharges to offset record diesel costs. The war has also put pressure on the Federal Reserve and contributed to a $40 trillion national debt.
The Chokepoint
The conflict’s most profound economic impact has come through the near-total disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply previously flowed. Before the war, at least 100 ships transited the waterway daily. After Iran announced the strait’s closure on March 2, that number plummeted to about five vessels a day. Over the six months of war, the average daily traffic through Hormuz has been just seven vessels, a staggering 93 percent drop from pre-war levels. By early September, the 10 day moving average had slipped to just 10 commodity vessels a day, the lowest level since May. On Saturday, only two ships transited the strait.
The disruption has sent oil prices soaring. Brent crude, the global benchmark, briefly touched $100.18 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest level since July, and has risen more than 60 per cent this year. From $72.99 on the eve of the war, Brent surged to $119.40 within a week. Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent could rise toward $120 a barrel if attacks on Middle Eastern shipping intensify. The International Maritime Organization has reported 70 confirmed incidents involving ships since the conflict began.
The Regional Spillover
The war has also spread beyond the US-Iran theatre, engulfing a large swath of West Asia. At least 7,900 people have been killed in Iran, Lebanon, and the Persian Gulf states, including 4,350 in Lebanon, 3,527 in Iran, and 28 in the Gulf countries. Yemen’s Houthis have launched major attacks on Saudi Arabia, injuring dozens and setting oil installations ablaze, while Saudi backed Yemeni government forces have intensified their counteroffensive. Iran has threatened maritime sanctions on vessels entering a newly designated zone and has warned that any South Korean military participation in the Gulf would have “serious consequences.”
The Trump administration has struggled to convince oil tankers to transit the strait while Iran continues to demonstrate its capability to fire on ships. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had predicted that gas prices could be back near $3 per gallon by Labor Day, but that forecast, like so many others, has proven wildly optimistic. With less than two months before the midterm elections, the longer fuel prices remain elevated, the harder it becomes for the administration to convince voters that the economic pain is worth the cost. Trump insists that Americans remain supportive of the broader offensive, but polling tells a different story: a Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 59 per cent of Americans disapprove of US military action against Iran, and his approval ratings have sunk to an all-time low.
The war that was supposed to last four to five weeks has now dragged on for more than six months, and there is no end in sight. The only certainty is that the bill in blood, treasure, and economic pain continues to grow with each passing day.