A Washington-based pro-Israel think tank has issued a highly critical assessment of the joint American-Israeli missile defense response during last month’s 12-day war with Iran, reporting significantly lower interception rates than those publicly claimed by Israeli and Western media outlets.
The Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) revealed in its report that during the conflict, U.S. and Israeli air defense systems—including the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Israel’s Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors—successfully intercepted only 201 out of 574 Iranian ballistic missiles. This represents an effective interception rate of just 35%, a stark contrast to official statements from Tel Aviv and Washington touting a success rate above 90%.
The report also estimated the financial cost of defending against Iran’s missile barrage to be between $1.48 billion and $1.58 billion. Notably, the U.S. reportedly expended 92 THAAD interceptors, depleting around 14% of its global stockpile of approximately 632 missiles. According to JINSA, replenishing that supply could take three to eight years at current production capacity.
This less favorable picture may help explain the Trump administration’s and Israel’s willingness to accept a ceasefire following Iran’s retaliatory strike on June 23, which targeted the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Subsequent reporting has revealed that a primary radar installation at the base was struck during the Iranian assault.
Throughout the conflict, Israel enforced strict military censorship, limiting media coverage of Iranian missile strikes and their effects. The JINSA report sheds rare light on the full extent of the damage and challenges faced during the hostilities.
While JINSA is widely known for its strong support of Israel and advocacy for a robust U.S. military presence in the Middle East, its acknowledgment of the poor performance of the joint missile defense operation is notable. The think tank frequently briefs U.S. congressional staffers on its findings, which often play a role in shaping American foreign policy.
The report further highlights growing concern within the Trump administration about the state of U.S. air defense capabilities. After two years of supplying interceptor systems to Ukraine and participating in ongoing operations against Yemen—where U.S. naval vessels have repeatedly come under fire—the Pentagon has been forced to reckon with the depletion of strategic resources. This culminated in a late-June decision to halt a shipment of 30 Patriot missiles previously scheduled for delivery to Ukraine.