U.S. importers, customs brokers, and trade lawyers are bracing for a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of sweeping global tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
The decision could trigger a complex struggle over as much as $150 billion in duties already paid if the tariffs are struck down.
During arguments in November, both conservative and liberal justices questioned whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 authorized such tariffs.
The court is expected to issue rulings on Friday, though it has not disclosed which cases will be decided.
Even if the tariffs are invalidated, many companies expect significant resistance in securing refunds from the federal government.
Trump is the first U.S. president to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs rather than sanctions or asset freezes.
The tariffs generated an estimated $133.5 billion in collections between February and mid December, with totals approaching $150 billion based on recent trends.
They were introduced through reciprocal tariffs tied to trade deficits and additional duties on China, Canada, and Mexico linked to fentanyl trafficking concerns.
Some executives fear the refund process would be slow and contested, even with a favorable court ruling.
"It's not in the government's DNA to give back money. And Trump would not want to give back money," said Jim Estill, chief executive of Danby Appliances.
Danby has paid about $7 million in tariffs and faces uncertainty over how any recovered funds would be shared with retailers and consumers.
The refund process may depend on whether the Supreme Court provides direct guidance or sends the issue to a lower court.
Importers generally have 314 days to correct entries before liquidation bars refunds, and that deadline has passed for some China related imports.
Several companies, including Costco, Revlon, and Bumble Bee Foods, have filed preemptive lawsuits to preserve refund rights.
Others have sold potential claims to hedge funds at steep discounts, reflecting doubts about recovery.
A recent move by U.S. Customs and Border Protection to shift refunds to electronic distribution has raised cautious optimism.
"The people that get their claims in early and have them done correctly are the ones who are going to reap the benefits the fastest," said Pete Mento of Baker Tilly.
Industry advisers warn that even under the best scenario, the process could take years.