European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday at his Turnberry golf course in Scotland to finalize a trade agreement.
The talks aim to replace a threatened 30% U.S. tariff on EU goods, set to begin August 1, with a 15% baseline tariff, mirroring the U.S.-Japan trade deal.
Negotiators from both sides, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, have been working to address key sectors like cars, steel, and pharmaceuticals.
The meeting follows intense discussions to avert a transatlantic trade war, with the EU preparing counter-tariffs on $109 billion of U.S. goods if no deal is reached.
A successful deal could see the EU secure a 15% tariff on most goods, with possible exemptions for aerospace and spirits, though wine is unlikely to be included.
The EU may also commit to purchasing more U.S. liquefied natural gas and increasing investments in the U.S. to balance trade relations.
Trump has indicated limited flexibility on the existing 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminium, stating, "because if I do it for one, I have to do it for all."
The EU, the U.S.’s largest trading partner, exported $603 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2024, with pharmaceuticals and car parts among the top categories.
The U.S. and EU account for a third of global trade, with $1 trillion in goods traded in 2024, though the U.S. ran a $235.6 billion goods trade deficit with the EU.
Failure to reach an agreement could push the EU toward recession, according to Oxford Economics, while U.S. farmers and auto workers could face losses from EU counter-tariffs.
Both sides are under pressure to resolve differences, with Trump describing von der Leyen as a “highly respected woman” and rating the chances of a deal as “50-50.”
A framework agreement could provide stability for businesses and consumers, addressing long-standing U.S. concerns over EU trade barriers like value-added taxes.