President Donald Trump has reiterated his intention to impose a 100% tariff on all films produced outside the United States, escalating his protectionist agenda into the realm of entertainment.
In a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, Trump declared that the American movie industry has been "stolen" from the United States by other countries, likening the situation to "stealing candy from a baby."
He specifically highlighted the impact on California, which he described as particularly hard-hit under its current leadership.
This announcement follows a similar threat made in May, when Trump expressed plans to consult Hollywood executives and initiate the tariff process to address what he called the industry's "very fast death."
No timeline for implementation was provided, and details on enforcement remain sparse.
The White House has not yet responded to inquiries regarding the policy's rollout.
Major studios, including Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount Skydance, Netflix, and Comcast, also declined immediate comment.
Trump's proposal arrives amid a broader wave of tariffs, including 100% levies on branded drug imports and 50% on certain cabinetry announced last week.
It signals an extension of trade barriers into cultural sectors, potentially disrupting Hollywood's reliance on international collaborations.
Analysts have raised significant questions about the tariff's feasibility.
Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell, noted that filmmakers increasingly opt for overseas locations due to attractive tax incentives, leading to a 26% drop in U.S. production spending since 2022, from $14.54 billion to lower levels last year.
Countries like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the UK have seen rises in film investment during this period, drawing major projects such as Deadpool & Wolverine, Wicked, and Gladiator II.
ProdPro, a movie industry research firm, underscores that the U.S. remains a global production hub despite these challenges.
Defining an "American-made" film poses further complications, especially with foreign actors, directors, or funding involved in U.S.-shot productions.
Coatsworth warned that higher costs could be passed to consumers, potentially dampening demand for streaming services and cinemas.
Paolo Pescatore, an analyst at PP Foresight, echoed these concerns, stating there is "too much uncertainty, and this latest move raises more questions than answers."
He predicted inevitable price hikes for viewers.
In May, a coalition of American film unions urged Trump to prioritize domestic tax incentives instead, aiming to repatriate projects through congressional measures.
Despite vulnerabilities, the U.S. film sector boasts robust global standing.
The Motion Picture Association reported a $15.3 billion trade surplus in 2023, driven by $22.6 billion in exports.
Trade analyst Jacob Jensen highlighted that American films dominate worldwide due to their accessibility and reach.
Executives expressed bafflement over enforcement, given modern films' multinational elements — from financing in Asia to visual effects in Europe.
A broad tariff could jeopardize thousands of U.S. jobs tied to overseas shoots.
Investor reactions have been muted, with stocks of Netflix and Disney experiencing brief dips before recovering, suggesting the threat is not yet viewed as imminent.