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Economics

U.S. Growth Surges in Third Quarter, Though Momentum Shows Signs of Easing

Strong consumer demand lifted GDP, but rising costs and shutdown effects loom ahead

Naffah

The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace than anticipated in the third quarter, supported by a notable pickup in consumer spending and exports, according to delayed government data released Tuesday.

Gross domestic product grew at a 4.3 percent annualized rate, exceeding forecasts and improving on the previous quarter’s expansion.

The report, postponed by a 43-day government shutdown, provides a backward-looking snapshot that contrasts with more recent signs of slowing momentum.

Economists noted that while the headline figures were robust, underlying pressures tied to living costs and policy disruptions remain evident.

Consumer activity played a central role in driving growth, even as the durability of that demand faces questions heading into the final quarter.

Consumer Spending Boost

Household spending rose at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter, accelerating from the prior period and accounting for a significant share of overall growth.

Much of the increase reflected a surge in electric vehicle purchases ahead of the expiration of certain tax credits at the end of September.

Following that deadline, motor vehicle sales declined in October and November, while spending in other categories showed mixed performance.

Surveys indicate that higher-income households have been responsible for much of the spending strength, benefiting from gains in the stock market.

In contrast, middle- and lower-income consumers have faced mounting pressure from higher prices linked to tariffs and other cost increases.

Economic Divides Emerge

Economists describe the current environment as a K-shaped economy, with uneven outcomes across income groups and businesses.

Large corporations have generally absorbed higher import costs and continued investing, including in artificial intelligence initiatives.

Smaller firms, however, have struggled to manage tariff-related expenses and weaker demand.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the recent government shutdown could reduce fourth-quarter growth by up to two percentage points, with some losses unlikely to be recovered.

Meanwhile, inflation pressures persisted during the quarter, keeping the Federal Reserve cautious despite a recent interest rate cut.

Policymakers have signaled that borrowing costs are unlikely to fall further until clearer trends emerge in inflation and the labor market.

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