The European Commission’s new climate plan for 2040 is facing growing opposition from several member states ahead of this week’s EU summit in Brussels. The proposal by Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels has triggered debate over its economic and political implications.
Many governments fear that such an ambitious target could burden industry and threaten Europe’s competitiveness in global markets. They are calling for a more flexible approach to climate goals that would protect national economies while maintaining environmental commitments.
The 90 percent reduction target was introduced earlier this year as part of the European Union’s roadmap toward net-zero emissions by 2050. Hoekstra’s draft allows limited use of foreign carbon offsets, meaning countries could count some emission cuts achieved outside Europe. For example, investments in reforestation or cleaner industrial projects in developing regions could contribute to EU climate performance.
These offsets can currently make up 3 percent of the total goal, but pressure is mounting to increase that share. Some diplomats suggest the overall reduction target may need to be lowered to reach consensus among all 27 member states.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has attempted to ease tensions before the summit. In a letter to EU governments, she noted that the 2040 target could be “below 90 percent” if compensated through international carbon measures. She also pledged financial support to help European industries transition to low-carbon production.
France has voiced concern over the impact on its steel and aviation sectors, while Germany is focused on protecting its automotive industry. Other countries from Eastern and Southern Europe fear the economic costs of compliance will fall disproportionately on their less developed regions.
Supporters of the plan argue that climate policy and economic strength can reinforce each other if managed strategically. They claim that innovation in green technology will create jobs and reduce long-term dependency on imported energy.
Experts within the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change warn that scaling back the 2040 ambition would put the 2050 net-zero target at risk. The board recommends a reduction of 90 to 95 percent by 2040 to stay within the limits of the Paris Agreement.
Some EU policymakers argue that the bloc is already on course for an 88 percent emission reduction by 2040, making a separate legal target unnecessary. Others counter that recent delays in legislation show the opposite. Environmental laws aimed at preventing deforestation have been postponed, and sustainability regulations have been watered down. Even the 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles could face revision.
No final decision is expected at this week’s summit. Environment ministers will meet again in two weeks to translate the political direction into a concrete legislative framework for Europe’s 2040 climate target.