In a private meeting that has sent shockwaves through diplomatic circles, Pentagon officials have presented European delegations with a stark ultimatum: take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense responsibilities, from intelligence to missile systems, by 2027 or risk a partial U.S. withdrawal from the alliance's coordination mechanisms . This dramatic shift, conveyed in Washington this week, underscores a decisive American pivot away from its traditional role as Europe's primary security guarantor and has been met with deep skepticism by European officials who privately deem the deadline "unrealistic" .
The message, delivered by Pentagon staff overseeing NATO policy, makes clear that Washington is dissatisfied with Europe's progress in strengthening its defenses since Russia's expanded invasion of Ukraine in 2022 . According to sources familiar with the discussion, U.S. officials warned that failure to meet the 2027 target could lead Washington to stop participating in key NATO defense coordination frameworks . The demand has even raised concerns among some officials on Capitol Hill . Crucially, it remains unclear whether this hardline stance represents the official position of the Trump administration or only the view of Pentagon officials, highlighting significant internal divisions in Washington over America's future military role in Europe .
Europe's "Impossible" Task
European officials have pushed back vigorously against the timeline, arguing that the challenge extends far beyond political will or financial commitment . A fundamental hurdle is Europe's reliance on unique U.S. capabilities, such as sophisticated intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets that have been pivotal for Ukraine and cannot be quickly purchased or replicated . Furthermore, the continent faces severe defense industrial constraints. NATO allies are already grappling with production backlogs, and even if Europe sought to buy American equipment to fill gaps, the delivery timelines for advanced U.S. weapons systems stretch for years .
The U.S. demand also lacks clarity on how progress would be measured, with officials failing to explain the metrics for assessing Europe's assumption of the conventional defense burden, which includes all non-nuclear assets from troops to weapons . This ambiguity adds to European frustrations. While a NATO official acknowledged that allies recognize the need to "shift the burden," they pointedly offered no comment on the 2027 deadline . The European Union's own target for strategic autonomy is a more distant 2030, a goal analysts already view as "highly ambitious" given the need to close gaps in air defense, drones, cyber capabilities, and munitions .
Persistent Russian Campaign
This U.S. pressure arrives as Europe contends with a continuous, multi-faceted campaign of Russian hostility that falls below the threshold of open war. Analysts note that Europe is already in a state of continuous conflict with Russia, facing a sustained "hybrid" or "grey-zone" campaign targeting the very foundations of its society . This includes sabotage of critical infrastructure like railways and energy networks, cyberattacks on industry, widespread disinformation aimed at eroding support for Ukraine and destabilizing democracies, and the harassment of civilian aviation through GPS jamming and drone incursions . The objective of this pressure is strategic corrosion, weakening European unity, political cohesion, and economic resilience from within .
For Russia, the apparent American disengagement from European defense represents a significant strategic opportunity. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitments is seen as emboldening Moscow, which perceives a weakening of the Western deterrent and an opening to further escalate its hybrid pressure . European security experts warn that the next three to five years could be particularly dangerous, as the continent would be in a transitional period of building up its own capabilities but not yet able to fully deter aggression on its own .
The Ghost of American Leadership
The Pentagon's demand is the latest and most concrete manifestation of a longstanding U.S. grievance over burden-sharing within NATO, a theme President Donald Trump has voiced with particular force . While European nations have broadly accepted Trump's calls for greater responsibility and pledged major increases in defense spending, including a new alliance-wide aspiration to spend 5% of GDP on defense, the 2027 ultimatum introduces a new level of crisis . The Trump administration's stance on the alliance has been volatile, oscillating between campaign threats to encourage Russian aggression against underpaying allies and summit praise for European spending pledges .
This inconsistency, coupled with the recent U.S. diplomatic outreach to Moscow on Ukraine that largely sidelined European capitals, has fueled a profound sense of strategic abandonment among European allies . The reported U.S. demand reinforces a growing European belief that they can no longer rely on American security guarantees and must urgently forge their own path to sovereignty and defense, a monumental task for which Washington has offered an impossibly short deadline and little practical support .