The United Nations Security Council will vote on Friday on whether to permanently lift sanctions on Iran, as the expiration of provisions under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) draws near. The vote will occur under a special procedure almost certain to trigger the reimposition of sanctions, commonly referred to as the “snapback” mechanism.
The resolution before the Council will ask members whether to block the snapback measure, initiated late last month by the E3 nations—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. To pass, the resolution would require nine of the Council’s 15 members to vote in favor. Even if the resolution receives the necessary support, permanent members such as the United States, Britain, or France could exercise their veto power to ensure the sanctions go back into effect.
By framing the vote as one to block sanctions rather than one to impose them, the procedure effectively strips China and Russia—longtime backers of Tehran—of the ability to veto. This shift has drawn sharp criticism from Iranian officials, who argue the system was designed to ensure sanctions could never be permanently lifted.
On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron told Israeli media that the snapback process was already “a done deal,” signaling Western consensus on the issue. His comments come despite Iran’s recent signing of a new cooperation agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Hardline critics of the JCPOA within Iran had long warned that the snapback mechanism was deliberately structured to lock Tehran into perpetual sanctions, regardless of compliance. With the vote approaching, Tehran has reiterated threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if the sanctions are reimposed. At the same time, questions remain over whether Iran will maintain its current level of cooperation with the IAEA.
Tehran has accused the agency of passing sensitive information about its nuclear facilities and personnel to Israel—information Iran claims was later used to target its scientists in a series of attacks in June. How Iran responds to Friday’s vote may mark a critical turning point for the country’s future in both nuclear diplomacy and international legitimacy.