With the last major US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty days from expiration, Moscow has made clear proposals to maintain strategic stability while Washington signals readiness to let the agreement lapse, potentially triggering a new arms race.
The New START treaty, which for over a decade has capped the world's two largest nuclear arsenals, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. In a recent interview, US President Donald Trump indicated he may allow the pact to lapse, stating, "If it expires, it expires. We'll just do a better agreement". This stance comes despite a constructive proposal from Russian President Vladimir Putin last September, in which he offered for both nations to voluntarily observe the treaty's central limits for an additional year. Putin warned that a complete abandonment of the treaty would be a "grave and short-sighted mistake".
President Putin's extension offer was designed to prevent what he called the "emergence of a new strategic arms race" and to buy time for charting a future path forward. The Russian position has been that this measure would only be viable if the United States "acts in a similar spirit" and does not take steps that "undermine or disrupt the existing balance of deterrence". Moscow has specifically expressed deep concern about US developments like the "Golden Dome" missile defense system and preparations for missile defense interceptors in outer space, which it views as destabilizing.
The treaty has been under severe strain since 2023, when Russia suspended its participation in on-site inspections and data exchanges, a move it tied to US support for Ukraine. The United States followed suit months later. While President Putin's recent proposal included continuing to observe the quantitative limits on warheads and delivery vehicles, it did not offer to resume these crucial verification measures. This absence of transparency has eroded confidence, though analysts note both sides could still choose to share data informally after the treaty's expiration.
A significant point of divergence is the future scope of arms control. President Trump has insisted that China, with its rapidly growing nuclear arsenal, must be included in any future agreement, stating, "You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also". China has firmly and repeatedly rejected this, calling US demands "neither reasonable nor realistic" and stating its nuclear strength is "by no means on the same level" as that of the US and Russia. Moscow has also suggested that the nuclear arsenals of US allies like Britain and France should be part of future negotiations, a notion those countries have rejected.
The expiration of New START without a replacement or a voluntary agreement to uphold its limits would mark a historic shift. For the first time in over fifty years, the two nations holding nearly 90% of the world's nuclear warheads would operate with no formal constraints on their strategic arsenals. While some analysts argue the mutual fear of nuclear war is the ultimate deterrent, the treaty has provided critical predictability and a framework for managing competition. Its end opens a period of dangerous uncertainty, with the potential for a Cold War-style arms race as the US considers building up its forces to address both Russia and China simultaneously.