As the post World War 2 order evolves into a more multipolar global system, the African continent is emerging as another frontier in great power conflicts and competition as the West resists the decline of its influence on the continent.
A vacuum is currently in place as the French are expelled from its former colonies and the U.S. has lost strategic depth in West Africa, being replaced by China's economic might and Russia's security assistance. All of this raises the possibility of future conflicts and proxy wars in the future.
Young Frontier
The African Continent has only been independent for a little over 60 years after the decolonization process began. However, Africa mostly avoided the great power conflicts of the cold war that we saw in Asia.
While the U.S. moved in as the 'successor' of the former French and Japanese Empires in Indo-China, the Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula in the 1950's, the U.S. did not fill the void when Algeria and Tunisia rebelled against the French in the 1950's or when Mozambique, Angola and Guinea rebelled against the Portuguese in the 1960's.
Since decolonization, U.S. and Western interests in Sub-Saharan Africa has lied in the West of the continent, particularly in the Sahel region, and in the east, near the Red Sea. Resources has been of a secondary concern for the U.S. while influence in strategic areas and influence on countries when it comes to the UN has been the primary motivator, especially since the fall of the Soviet Union, who had deep ties on the continent.
China's Arrival
In the year 2000, China's trade to the entire African continent amounted to 10 billion USD, by 2015, that number had skyrocketed to 220 billion, and now has reached well over 270 billion USD. China, in the 21st century has invested and construction a number of large infrastructure projects on the continent. Railroads, ports, airports, dams, investment in mines, construction of industrial parks and development of oil and gas fields.
The so called "Infrastructure for Resources" model, in which China builds and invests in critical infrastructure projects across the continent, in return for access to natural resources, provides a mutually beneficial trading relationship through which African nations may become more inclined, and capable to, re-orient towards China and away from Western influence.
Recently, the war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a resource rich country, has shown the spotlight to the disparity of investment in the region between the U.S. and China. As the DRC has reportedly offered the U.S. access to its minerals, especially cobalt, in return for military aid, it was learned that Chinese companies already have claim to most of the mines in the country, including the world's largest cobalt mine.
This, when compared to U.S. trade with the continent being only about 70 billion dollars in 2024 shows the different approaches of the U.S. and China to the continent to maintain influence. The main export to Africa for the U.S. is still its military and that has come under challenge in the last five years directly to itself and to its allies.
Russia's 'Africa Corps'
Since 2021, Russia, through its Wagner Group, and now through its Africa Corps, which is officially part of the Ministry of Defense, has expanded its military foothold in Africa.
The first came with the Central African Republic, when in 2021, the government of the former French colony expelled the French military who had been the primary backers of the government in the country's civil war that began in 2012, and replaced them with Russia's Wagner group, to the great success of the government.
Since 2022, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) have all expelled the French military from their countries.
in 2021, 2022 and 2023 military coups took place in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, respectively, all countries in the African Sahel and who had been embroiled in their own civil wars since 2012 against Al-Qaeda backed rebels. The new governments of these countries expelled the French military, nationalized their resources and brought in the Russians for help in their wars.
The aftermath of the coup in Niger in August of 2023 became tense as the U.S., France and the UK lobbied the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), led by Nigeria and Chad, to militarily intervene in Niger, which the bloc ultimately declined. Chad has since expelled the French and American military contingents in the country.
In May of 2024, Russian forces entered Air Base 201 in Agadez and would share the base with the U.S. until August when U.S. forces withdrew from the country.
New Conflict?
The potential for a proxy war for influence in Africa is always there and may already revealed a bit itself. In July of 2024, near the village of Tinzaouaten, along with Mali-Algeria border, Al-Qaeda backed rebels ambushed a convoy of Russian and Malian soldiers, killing dozens of soldiers in a significant setback for the Malian government.
A few days later the Spokesman for Ukraines Military Intelligence (GUR), Andrii Yusov, claimed Ukraine had provided the information to the rebels on the attack. Soon after, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, now all in alliance with each other, severed diplomatic relations with Ukraine.
If Ukraine is in fact involved on the ground in the African Sahel, they would likely only be acting as a cutout for NATO countries, particularly the U.S. and France, given the inability for Ukraine to project itself into another continent and its reliance on western aid for its own survival.
For now, any great power proxy war would likely be exercised through rebel groups in the African Sahel, the Congo and other regions as historically Western aligned African countries have not shown the willingness to go to war against non Western friendly governments.
In the Sahel and resource rich DRC, we could see further escalations to weaken non Western friendly governments and displace Russian and Chinese influence in the region by groups who are being backed by outside actors who were fighting them just a few years ago.