Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held their first formal meeting in Abu Dhabi since finalizing a draft peace agreement in March, described by both sides as "constructive" and "result-oriented". While discussions covered border delimitation, transport corridors, and confidence-building measures, no timeline was set for signing the treaty. Both leaders reaffirmed bilateral negotiations as the "most efficient format" for normalization, avoiding concrete commitments on key disputes like Azerbaijan’s demand for constitutional changes in Armenia.
Azerbaijan insists Armenia amend its constitution, specifically removing a preamble reference to a 1990 declaration mentioning Nagorno-Karabakh’s "reunification" with Armenia before signing the deal. Baku views this clause as a territorial claim, while Yerevan calls it a pretext for delay. Though PM Pashinyan acknowledged the constitution requires updates (unrelated to Azerbaijan, per Armenian officials), the process could take until 2026 via referendum, a timeline Azerbaijan rejects.
The talks underscored Russia’s diminished influence in the Caucasus. With Moscow distracted by Ukraine, Armenia and Azerbaijan have pursued diplomacy without traditional Russian mediation. The UAE hosted the summit while signing a $680 million trade deal with Azerbaijan, positioning itself as an economic and diplomatic stakeholder. Simultaneously, Armenia’s outreach to Türkiye, including Pashinyan’s "historic" June visit to Istanbul signals a broader realignment toward Ankara-backed regional integration.
Despite diplomatic progress, the agreement draft neglects accountability for Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, which expelled 100,000 ethnic Armenians, over half women and children. Refugees now constitute 3.3% of Armenia’s population, straining resources amid housing shortages and poverty. Critics argue the treaty’s silence on this ethnic cleansing "normalizes Azerbaijan’s settler-colonial agenda" and undermines lasting justice.
Though ceasefire violations have recently paused, both nations doubled defense spending since 2020. Armenia now sources weapons from France and India instead of Russia, while Azerbaijan leverages Turkish and Israeli arms. Skirmishes persist along their 1,000-km border, where Azerbaijan occupies strategic Armenian parcels seized in 2022. Analysts warn these dynamics, coupled with Azerbaijan’s demand for the "Zangezur Corridor" through Armenia, risk accidental escalation.