As tensions escalate between Ethiopia and Eritrea, there are fears of a renewed conflict between the two nations, while the region is already suffering from humanitarian crises. Officials in Ethiopia’s Tigray region recently said that the two regional rivals could be on the verge of direct conflict, putting the already very fragile peace between them in jeopardy.
Back in 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki made move for peace by normalizing relations after years of hostility, a decision that even earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize. However, things have taken a turn for the worse in recent years. There have been disputes over Ethiopia's desire for sea access and Eritrea's exclusion from peace talks after the Tigray civil war (2020–2022) have created tensions between the two. Recently, there have been claims that Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization in February, while Ethiopia reportedly deployed troops near their border. So far, neither government has confirmed these reports.
In Tigray, a region still recovering from a civil war, the internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) (Which is the faction currently governing the Tigray region within Ethiopia) have only made things more unstable. A faction that opposes the interim administration, which works with Ethiopia’s federal government, has recently seized control of Adigrat, an important town in the region. Tigrayan leaders are accusing Eritrea of backing the dissidents, but Eritrea is denying any role in the situation.
Both governments have said there is no worry about war, with Eritrea even calling the warnings by Tigrayan leaders as “war-mongering.” Still, the potential for escalation lingers, putting at risk years of diplomatic efforts and exacerbating the suffering in a region already weary from conflict.