The fragile truce between Lebanon and Israel faces its most severe test as Israeli leadership threatens to escalate military operations, accusing Hezbollah of rearming. These threats come despite Hezbollah's public commitment to the ceasefire and ongoing, albeit challenging, efforts by the Lebanese state to implement disarmament clauses, all while Israel continues strikes and maintains a military presence on Lebanese soil.
The U.S.-brokered ceasefire that took effect on November 27, 2024, was designed to be a "permanent cessation of hostilities" . Its core terms required Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River and for the Lebanese state to be the only entity bearing arms in southern Lebanon . In return, Israel was to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon in a phased manner within 60 days . However, the agreement has been marred by inconsistent implementation from the start. While the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have begun the complex process of dismantling military infrastructure in the south, Israel has neither fully withdrawn nor ceased offensive operations . To this day, the Israeli military maintains a presence in five "strategic" positions inside Lebanon, a clear violation of the agreement's terms .
In recent days, the situation has deteriorated significantly. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would "act as necessary" if Lebanon fails to disarm Hezbollah, with Defense Minister Israel Katz threatening that "maximum enforcement will continue and even intensify" . These statements are not merely rhetorical; they are followed by action. The Israeli military confirmed an airstrike in southern Lebanon that killed four people, and ground troops have conducted deadly raids across the border . These operations are framed by Israel as acts of "self-defence" targeting Hezbollah members, but they constitute a breach of the ceasefire, which only permits defensive actions in the face of an ongoing or imminent attack . The United Nations Human Rights Office has reported that 103 Lebanese civilians have been killed in these Israeli attacks since the ceasefire began, highlighting the human cost of these violations .
In contrast to Israeli actions, Hezbollah has publicly committed to the ceasefire and has not fired on Israel since the truce began . The group has not opposed the seizure of unmanned weapons caches in the south, demonstrating a degree of cooperation with the state's efforts . However, Hezbollah insists that the disarmament clause applies only to southern Lebanon and has hinted that a broader state move against the group could provoke conflict . From Hezbollah's perspective, its armed wing remains an essential deterrent against Israeli aggression. The group's leadership has stated that discussing its arms is only possible in the context of a national defense strategy once Israel withdraws from all occupied Lebanese territories and reconstruction begins . This stance is rooted in a history of what it sees as unprovoked Israeli attacks and is supported by a significant portion of Lebanon's Shia community, which views Hezbollah's strength as a form of communal empowerment .
The Lebanese government is navigating an incredibly delicate path. On one side, it faces immense pressure from the United States and Israel to disarm Hezbollah completely and rapidly . On the other, it must avoid triggering a civil war by forcefully confronting a heavily armed group within its own borders . The Lebanese Armed Forces, while making progress in the south, are severely hampered by Lebanon's profound economic crisis, which has decimated their resources and manpower . Security sources indicate that the army often avoids raiding known Hezbollah sites north of the Litani River for fear of sparking a catastrophic internal conflict . This reality underscores the complexity of the disarmament process, which cannot be achieved by decree alone. President Joseph Aoun has explicitly blamed Israel for the delays, citing its continued attacks and occupation of Lebanese territory as the primary obstacles to fulfilling the state's commitments .