The New York Times reported on Saturday that President Donald Trump has yet to reach a final decision on how to proceed with Venezuela, despite weeks of escalating military deployments and rising expectations that the administration is nearing a decisive move. According to the article, backchannel discussions have not been fully abandoned, even after Trump publicly rejected an overture from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier in October.
In that proposal, Maduro reportedly offered to grant U.S. companies access to Venezuela’s extensive oil, gas, and mineral reserves while pledging to sever economic ties with Russia, China, and Iran. The outreach was widely interpreted as a sign that Maduro feared imminent U.S. military action. Trump responded by canceling diplomatic talks, signaling that Washington appeared to be moving toward a regime-change strategy.
Yet senior administration officials told the Times that Trump remains undecided, particularly regarding what they described as “the endgame.” According to the report, the president is concerned about the possibility of U.S. forces becoming entangled in a prolonged post-Maduro insurgency, drawing comparisons to America’s long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Those concerns, officials claimed, have slowed the decision-making process even as the USS Gerald Ford Strike Group, the largest in the U.S. Navy, has entered the Caribbean.
The official quoted in the article stated that although Trump dismissed Maduro’s offer, the talks “were not entirely dead,” adding that the deployment of the Gerald Ford was intended to create leverage rather than signal an immediate military assault. Whether any backchannel negotiations remain active is unclear, and analysts are divided on whether Trump’s hesitation is genuine or part of a broader strategic deception. Critics note the similarities to the lead-up to the June conflict with Iran, when multiple media reports described a rift between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—reports later viewed as part of a coordinated messaging effort.
Skeptics also question how Trump could de-escalate after two months of intensifying rhetoric and military movements without appearing to retreat. Meanwhile, U.S. Marines are scheduled to begin joint military exercises in Trinidad and Tobago on Sunday, less than ten miles from the Venezuelan coastline. The drills will almost certainly be viewed by Caracas as a provocative step, underscoring the fragility of any remaining diplomatic channel.