A de facto partition of Gaza is hardening into a permanent division, with a stalled U.S. peace plan and Israeli policies on the ground creating a reality of two separate territories, a scenario Palestinian officials and regional leaders warn would entrench a humanitarian crisis and shatter prospects for a sovereign Palestinian state .
The next phase of the U.S. President Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan, which envisioned a full Israeli withdrawal, a transitional governing authority, and a multinational security force for Gaza, has effectively stalled . The plan lacks clear timelines or enforcement mechanisms, and key points of contention have brought progress to a halt. Hamas refuses to disarm, and Israel rejects any involvement in Gaza by the Western-backed Palestinian Authority . Complicating matters, European and Arab nations are reportedly hesitant to contribute troops to a proposed international force unless its role is strictly peacekeeping, avoiding direct confrontation with Palestinian groups .
Without a major diplomatic push to break this impasse, the current "yellow line" – demarcated by large yellow cement blocks and new Israeli military infrastructure – is increasingly expected to become Gaza's de facto border for years to come . This line currently splits territory under Israeli military control, which comprises 53% of Gaza including key farmland and urban areas, from the rest of the strip where nearly all of Gaza's two million people are crammed into tent camps and the rubble of shattered cities .
The potential fragmentation of Gaza threatens to worsen the already catastrophic humanitarian situation and deal a severe blow to Palestinian aspirations for statehood. Reconstruction costs are estimated at a staggering $70 billion, but Gulf nations are reluctant to fund rebuilding in areas under Israeli occupation without the involvement of the Palestinian Authority and a credible path to statehood . This has led to concerns that reconstruction may be limited only to the Israeli-controlled zone, creating what U.S. officials have called "model zones" and risking the entrenchment of a long-term division .
Palestinian leaders have forcefully rejected this trajectory. Palestinian Foreign Minister Varsen Aghabekian Shahin stated that the Palestinian Authority is ready to assume "full national responsibility," emphasizing that "there can be no genuine reconstruction or lasting stability without full Palestinian sovereignty over the territory" . Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi echoed this sentiment, declaring, "We cannot have a fragmentation of Gaza... Gaza is one, and Gaza is part of the occupied Palestinian territory" .
The future governance and security of Gaza remain deeply contested. In areas outside Israeli control, Hamas has reasserted its presence in recent weeks, providing police and civil workers to clear rubble and guard food stalls . A Hamas spokesperson, Hazem Qassem, has said the group is ready to hand over power to a Palestinian technocratic entity to begin reconstruction, asserting that "all the regions of Gaza deserve reconstruction equally" .
Meanwhile, discussions are ongoing about potential compromises, such as whether Hamas could decommission its weapons under international supervision rather than handing them over to Israel . European and Arab states continue to advocate for the Palestinian Authority and its trained police forces to return to Gaza alongside a multinational force, a proposal Israel continues to oppose . For the people of Gaza, the division creates a painful new reality. Gaza City resident Salah Abu Amr voiced the fears of many, wondering if families would be divided and whether Israel would have veto power over who can move into the reconstructed zones .