On March 15, 2025, US President Trump ordered the United States Military to launch "decisive and powerful Military action against the Houthi terrorists in Yemen".
He stated that "Joe Biden’s response was pathetically weak" and that "It has been over a year since a U.S. flagged commercial ship safely sailed through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, or the Gulf of Aden".
"Joe Biden's response" refers to Operation Prosperity Guardian, which was launched on December 18, 2023. The goal of this operation was to protect international shipping from attacks carried out by the Houthi movement from Yemen. Following this, in January 2024, the US together with the UK began striking Houthi targets in Yemen, under Operation Poseidon Archer.
US forces at this stage of the confrontation were represented by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (CSG). Usually, the mere presence of such a force is enough to exert significant pressure on the US's adversaries. However, this time the US Navy found itself involved in a prolonged confrontation, which is described as the most intense maritime conflict since World War II. What's even more surprising is that USS Dwight D. Eisenhower returned to the US after a nine-month deployment on July 14, 2024, without achieving a strategic victory.
The result of this battle was summed up on August 07, 2024, by Vice Admiral George Wikoff, Commander of the Middle East-based United States Fifth Fleet:
We have certainly degraded their capabilities. There's no doubt about that. We've degraded their ability. However, have we stopped them? No.
US Vice Admiral George M. Wikoff
The US has subsequently deployed other carrier strike groups to the Middle East, but none have engaged the Houthis in such intense combat, and the strategic situation has not changed. As President Trump rightly pointed out, Bab Al-Mandeb was effectively closed to US-flagged commercial shipping. This is an unprecedented situation given the capabilities and position of the United States in the world.
In addition, during the operation, US forces lost more than a dozen MQ-9 Reaper drones. It is not surprising that President Trump has decided to take action to address this conundrum, but is it possible to fix the situation just by using more force?
The Israel-Hezbollah war is a clear recent example of how much military effort it might take for a state to fight a member of Iran's "Axis of Resistance" like the Houthi movement in Yemen.
Israel's main stated goal in this war was to return the population to its northern territories from where they had been displaced by Hezbollah shelling. To achieve this goal, Israel needed to completely stop Hezbollah attacks, which is similar to what is required of the United States in the confrontation with the Houthis.
The difference is that for Israel, the war against Hezbollah is not a matter of prestige, strategic influence, or even economics; it is an existential war against a historical enemy. That’s why Israel has long been preparing for war against Hezbollah, most evident in its extensive intelligence efforts, including an unprecedented attack on Hezbollah communications devices. Even with all this in mind, it took Israel more than a year of intense air, drone and artillery strikes, followed by a ground invasion, to pave the way for a ceasefire that stopped Hezbollah's attacks. Hezbollah was not destroyed and remains a political and military force in Lebanon.
On the other hand, it's true that the US has been gathering information about the Houthis, especially after they seized significant territory in Yemen more than a decade ago. However, the Houthis have not been a key focus until recently. Also, a US ground operation against the Houthis seems like an extremely unlikely event, this puts additional pressure on the Air Force and the Navy.
President Trump has promised to use "overwhelming lethal force" to combat the Houthis, and indeed the list of targets has expanded to include light and heavy manufacturing plants, and the frequency of US airstrikes has severely increased.
However, these strikes hardly reach the level of "overwhelming force" and are nowhere near the level of strikes carried out by Israel in its aforementioned confrontation with Hezbollah or Hamas. Added to this is the fact that the territory controlled by the Houthis is much larger than Hezbollah's, and is mostly mountainous. The Houthis are also a much larger military force and have much greater weapons storage and production capabilities.
Moreover, there is no sign of significant US pressure to cut off supplies to the Houthis. This is a significant strategic problem that has been present since Trump's first term. Solving it would likely require a full-scale blockade of Houthi territory, which, like a land invasion, requires enormous resources and is highly unlikely.
Additionally, lack of military intelligence on Houthi territory clearly limits US precision strike capabilities. To some extent, this is due to the very nature of the Houthis. They govern their territories, which makes it easier to deal with spies, unlike Hezbollah, which doesn't govern any land in Lebanon but rather is at the mercy of the Lebanese government. The Houthis were also able to counter American MQ-9 drones used for reconnaissance. The US has other intelligence assets in its arsenal that could be deployed against the Houthis, if necessary, although this would take time.
President Trump has made it clear that Iran must stop supporting the Houthis. The Iranian side has also responded quite clearly:
The United States Government has no authority or business dictating Iranian foreign policy.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
It is worth mentioning that the Yemeni experience gives Iran a tangible practical move. With Iran's capabilities, closing the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping would not be a problem. Of course, such an action is only likely in the event of war, but it severely increases the cost of such a full-out war for the US, and reduces its likelihood by a large extent.
Iran is likely to come under great pressure from the US, especially if there is no agreement on the nuclear program. The Houthis, who are resisting the US, are a significant strategic asset in this situation. Therefore, Iran will continue to support them from the technical and intelligence side.
Following the ceasefire in Gaza, the Houthis announced a halt to attacks on merchant ships. However, this did not lead to a return to normal shipping in the Red Sea region. Shipping industry leaders have made it clear that the resumption of normal shipping will only be possible after the Houthi threat has been completely neutralized, or after some kind of comprehensive agreement has been reached.
The ceasefire in Gaza was a stepping stone to that agreement, but it was destroyed after Israel launched airstrikes and re-entered Gaza. The Houthis have said they will not stop their operations until Israel stops fighting in Gaza.
The United States is presenting military means as the only possible solution to the Houthi threat. With the military means currently in place, this could take a huge amount of time, if a positive for the US outcome is even possible.