Russian forces appear poised to launch an attack to capture their first town in the Dnipropetrovsk region after advancing into the area last week.
By Tuesday, Russian troops were approximately two miles (3.6 kilometers) from the entrance to Novopavlivka, a town located near the border of the Donetsk region.
Novopavlivka functions as a critical logistics and defense hub for Ukrainian forces operating in the region. Its capture or siege would complicate operations for Ukrainian troops south of the town.
Unlike Donetsk, which is characterized by densely populated urban centers with Soviet-era high-rise apartment blocks and extensive industrial complexes connected by rolling hills and rivers, the Dnipropetrovsk region—and much of Ukraine—is predominantly flat. The landscape features sparsely populated small towns and villages spread across nearly 50 miles (80 kilometers) until reaching the city of Pavlograd.
This terrain favors an attacking force, potentially enabling Russian advances to accelerate once Novopavlivka falls.
Ukraine has already ordered the mandatory evacuation of residents from Novopavlivka and nearby settlements, signaling plans for a prolonged defense.
If Russia begins capturing settlements in Dnipropetrovsk, it may shift its stance on the territory. Currently, Russia’s Ministry of Defense states its goal is to create a buffer zone by pushing Ukrainian troops away from the Donetsk border, which Russia claims as part of the Russian Federation.
However, gaining control of large areas may prompt Russia to consider permanent occupation of the territory.
On May 16th, during peace talks in Istanbul, Russian and Ukrainian delegations discussed territorial control. After Ukraine rejected Russia’s demand to withdraw troops from Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk, the Russian delegation reportedly indicated they were currently demanding control over four regions but hinted that demands could increase in the future, specifically mentioning the Dnipropetrovsk region.