The dramatic rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over southern Yemen has inadvertently delivered a significant strategic victory to Iran and its primary regional proxy, the Houthi movement. The conflict, which has seen the Saudi-led coalition fracture as member states back opposing factions, has left the internationally recognized government in disarray and has empowered the Houthis in the north, who now watch as their principal adversaries turn their weapons on each other.
The once-unified coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to counter Houthi control and Iranian influence has collapsed into open confrontation. The flashpoint was a rapid military offensive in early December by the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seized control of the resource-rich Hadramawt province bordering Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia viewed this advance as a direct threat to its national security and southern border, leading to unprecedented actions including airstrikes on UAE-linked shipments and the public demand for all Emirati forces to leave Yemen. Although the UAE has complied with the withdrawal order, analysts note its strategy has long relied on a network of local proxies like the STC, meaning its influence and ability to shape events on the ground remain potent.
For the Houthis, the infighting among their Gulf adversaries represents a major opportunity. The Houthis, who have endured a years-long Saudi-led military campaign and blockade, are now observing as the coalition that failed to defeat them disintegrates. Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, stated the Houthis "are likely to view the growing rift between two of their principal adversaries with considerable advantage". The STC's actions and the Saudi response have effectively split Yemen into three competing spheres: a Houthi-controlled north, an STC-dominated south, and a rump territory held by the fractured, Saudi-backed government. This new fragmentation weakens any unified front against the Houthis and allows Iran to maintain and expand its influence through its support for the group, which controls critical Red Sea coastline and has launched attacks against Saudi Arabia and beyond.
The direct clashes between Saudi and UAE-backed forces risk igniting a broader and more dangerous phase of conflict that extends beyond Yemen's borders. Hisham Al-Omeisy, a Yemen analyst, described the situation as a "proxy war within a proxy war" with profound regional implications. The public confrontation between two of the Middle East's most powerful and wealthy states, both key Western allies creates unprecedented instability.