The World Economic Forum’s annual assessment of global threats has issued a stark warning for 2026, identifying the use of trade, sanctions, and finance as geopolitical weapons as the number one danger to global stability. This rise of "geoeconomic confrontation" underscores a fundamental shift into what the report terms an "age of competition," where confrontation is replacing collaboration and long-standing international rules are in retreat.
The report describes a world where the established multilateral system is under severe strain. The WEF finds that declining trust, transparency, and a growing emphasis on protectionism are straining international relations and increasing the likelihood of conflict. A key insight from the survey of over 1,300 global experts is that 68% now expect a "multipolar or fragmented order" over the next decade, where regional powers set their own rules, a significant increase from the previous year. Only 6% of respondents believe the post-war, Western-led international order will be revived, signaling a widespread loss of faith in the old system.
This geopolitical fracturing is now the primary driver of global risk. The weaponization of economic policy, including tariffs, investment screening, and control over critical resources, has moved from a long-term concern to an immediate crisis. The report notes that actions by major powers are pushing nations to stockpile resources and secure supply chains, which in turn fuels further rivalry and could lead to price spikes and even direct interventions in resource-rich regions.
The "age of competition" is creating a cascade of interconnected risks. Economic dangers have shown the sharpest rise, with concerns over a downturn, inflation, and asset bubbles climbing rapidly in the rankings. The interplay of high national debts, potential economic bubbles, and geoeconomic tensions could trigger a new phase of severe volatility that destabilizes societies.
Simultaneously, societies within nations are fracturing. Societal polarization is a persistent top-tier risk, intensifying pressures on democratic systems. A growing "streets versus elites" narrative reflects deep disillusionment with traditional governance, leaving citizens skeptical that policy-making can improve their lives. This domestic instability is exacerbated by technological risks, with misinformation and disinformation ranking as the second most severe short-term threat. Anxiety over the adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence shows the most dramatic rise of any risk, jumping from 30th place in the two-year outlook to 5th over a ten-year horizon.
In this climate of immediate geopolitical and economic confrontation, the report finds that longer-term challenges are being dangerously deprioritized. Environmental risks, while still dominating the ten-year outlook as the most severe threats, have all declined in ranking and severity score for the short term. This reprioritization away from collective existential threats like extreme weather and biodiversity loss highlights how fragmented competition undermines the capacity for global cooperation.
The collective mood among global leaders is pessimistic. Half of the experts surveyed anticipate a "turbulent or stormy" world over the next two years, a figure that rises to 57% over the next decade. Only 1% expect calm conditions. This outlook frames a world where the existing frameworks for peace and cooperation are failing, creating a vacuum that emboldens unilateral action and heightens the risk for wider conflict.