Soviet Venus Spacecraft to Re-Enter Earth

A defunct Soviet-era spacecraft, originally intended to land on Venus in the 1970s, is expected to plunge back to Earth uncontrolled in early May, though the exact timing and location remain uncertain.

Space debris experts say the half-tonne metal object—part of the Kosmos 482 mission—could re-enter Earth’s atmosphere as early as 10 May, with its descent speed estimated at around 242 kph if it remains intact. While the event carries some risk, scientists emphasize that the threat to people or property is minimal.

Low but Non-Zero Risk

Dutch astrophysicist Marco Langbroek of Delft University of Technology noted that the spacecraft’s size and the likelihood of breakup during re-entry make the hazard comparable to a random meteorite strike.

“While not without risk, we should not be too worried,” Langbroek said. “The chance of it hitting someone is small, but it cannot be completely excluded.”

The Soviet Union launched Kosmos 482 in 1972 as part of a series of Venus missions, but a rocket failure left it stranded in Earth’s orbit. Most of the spacecraft re-entered within a decade, but the landing capsule—a one-meter-diameter sphere designed to withstand Venus’s harsh atmosphere—has remained in a decaying orbit for 53 years.

Survival Uncertain Due to Aging Systems

Weighing nearly 500 kg, the capsule was built to endure extreme conditions, raising the possibility that it could survive re-entry. However, experts doubt its parachute system would still function, and its heat shield may have degraded over decades in space.

Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, said that if the heat shield fails, the capsule would likely burn up. But if it holds, “you have a half-tonne metal object falling from the sky.”

The potential re-entry zone spans latitudes between 51.7 degrees north and south—covering regions from London and Edmonton, Canada, down to Cape Horn in South America. However, given Earth’s vast oceans, Langbroek noted that the most likely outcome is an “ocean splashdown.”