The recent 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran—which raised the threat of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% to 30% of global daily oil trade passes—has revived Chinese interest in the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project from Russia.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Beijing’s interest in the proposed pipeline has sharply increased over the past two weeks, coinciding with the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East. Even after the announcement of a ceasefire on Tuesday, Chinese officials remain concerned about the possibility of renewed conflict in the region, the report said, citing sources in Beijing.
China currently purchases around 90% of Iran’s oil exports, with many of its smaller “teapot” refineries heavily reliant on discounted Iranian crude. In May, a new direct overland railway linking the Aprin dry port near Tehran to Xi’an, China, came online—cutting transit time from 30 to 15 days and bypassing maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
However, China's natural gas imports remain exposed. Approximately 30% of China’s gas supply arrives from Qatar in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is transported via sea routes that could be vulnerable in the event of wider conflict in the Gulf region.
The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which has faced prolonged delays over pricing disputes and transit concerns involving Mongolia, is designed to deliver 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year to China—surpassing the 38 bcm capacity of the existing Power of Siberia 1 line.
A second gas pipeline from Russia to China would not only deepen energy ties between the two countries but also complicate U.S. efforts under the Trump administration to drive a strategic wedge between Moscow and Beijing. Trump officials have floated the idea of luring Russia away from its close partnership with China as part of a broader campaign to isolate Beijing.
Moreover, the new pipeline would provide Russia with another key outlet for its gas exports, following the suspension of pipeline gas to Europe due to the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline and the closure of Ukrainian transit routes earlier this year.