The International Monetary Fund said global economic growth remains steady and resilient, but warned that rising trade tensions and potential risks tied to artificial intelligence could undermine the outlook.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected global growth of 3.3% for this year and next year, before easing slightly to 3.2% in 2027.
The forecast reflects stronger-than-expected performance despite disruptions caused by tariffs introduced in 2025.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the global economy has adapted to trade shocks and continued expanding beyond earlier expectations.
The report was released amid renewed uncertainty following U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on several European countries over opposition to his Greenland proposal.
The IMF said investment linked to artificial intelligence has been a key driver supporting global activity.
Spending on AI infrastructure, including data centers and advanced chips, has boosted asset values and productivity expectations across several economies.
The Fund revised up growth forecasts for the United States, Spain, and China, while maintaining its outlook for Britain at 1.3%.
China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2026, reflecting weaker export momentum despite reduced U.S. tariffs and trade diversion to other markets.
The euro zone is projected to grow 1.3% in 2026, supported by higher public spending in Germany and stronger performances in Spain and Ireland.
Global inflation is expected to continue easing, falling from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
Despite the improved outlook, the IMF warned that risks remain tilted to the downside.
The Fund said overly optimistic expectations around AI-driven productivity could trigger a market correction if gains fail to materialize.
Such a correction could reduce household wealth and dampen consumption and investment.
Trade tensions remain another key threat, with the IMF cautioning that new tariff disputes or geopolitical shocks could disrupt supply chains and financial markets.
The report also stressed that preserving central bank independence is critical for economic stability.
Gourinchas warned that political pressure on central banks could lead to higher inflation and borrowing costs over time.