Europe’s Energy Gamble: Inside the High-Stakes REPowerEU Strategy
Reducing Russian Dependence and Reshaping Energy Supply
Achieving the goals outlined in the European Commission's REPowerEU communication is crucial for the European Union’s energy security. The plan aims to rapidly reduce member states' dependence on Russian fossil fuels by accelerating the energy transition and diversifying gas supplies. Meeting these goals requires substantial investments: improving energy efficiency, expanding renewable energy capacity, addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, increasing LNG imports and non-Russian pipeline supplies, and scaling up renewable hydrogen and biomethane production.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has intensified the EU’s commitment to phasing out fossil fuels, reinforcing liberal democratic values and accelerating the shift toward renewable energy. Central to this effort is REPowerEU, part of the broader European Green Deal (EGD). However, recent policy measures introduced under REPowerEU may yield paradoxical outcomes. While designed to curb Russian energy dependence, they have also led to a rise in nuclear and fossil fuel use, reactivation of coal-fired power plants, and new investments in LNG terminals and pipelines.
To diversify supplies, the EU has also strengthened energy ties with countries often criticized for authoritarian practices, including Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and Azerbaijan. These moves risk locking the bloc into new forms of carbon-intensive infrastructure due to sunk costs and institutional inertia. Furthermore, the transition to renewable energy is increasing the EU’s reliance on critical raw materials, predominantly sourced and processed abroad, particularly in China. As global trade routes are reconfigured, Europe faces mounting economic challenges that threaten its post-pandemic recovery, against the backdrop of deindustrialization, financialization, and a declining share of labor income. These dynamics highlight a widening gap between the EU’s stated ambitions for green growth and the real-world impacts of its current policies.
Before the conflict, Russia supplied roughly 45% of the EU’s natural gas. Moscow used this leverage as a geopolitical tool. Yet in a short period, the EU managed to sharply reduce its reliance on Russian energy through a series of strategic interventions, including expanding LNG imports from the United States, Qatar, and Norway, and developing new pipeline connections. Simultaneously, the EU ramped up investment in renewable energy to build a more sustainable and resilient energy system. REPowerEU marks a significant strategic shift. By 2030, the EU targets renewable energy making up 45% of total energy consumption. Solar energy plays a central role, with plans to install more than 320 gigawatts (GW) of capacity by 2025 and over 600 GW by 2030. Wind power is also being expanded to ensure seasonal stability. Upgrades to grid infrastructure aim to integrate renewables more efficiently and eliminate supply bottlenecks. The EU also targets producing 20 million tons of renewable hydrogen per year by 2030, with applications across heavy industry and transport.
The European Green Deal positions this transition as a “new growth strategy,” intended to create a just, prosperous, and resource-efficient economy decoupled from environmental exploitation. Alongside reshoring critical supply chains, the EU seeks to bolster its global competitiveness, particularly against China. Yet, the concept of "green growth" is increasingly under scrutiny. Critics argue that historically, economic growth has rarely, if ever, been decoupled from increased emissions and resource use, raising questions about whether the EU’s strategy can deliver true sustainability.
Investment Needs and Infrastructure Expansion
REPowerEU builds on three main pillars: energy savings, diversification of energy suppliers, and an accelerated energy transition. On energy efficiency, the plan sets higher performance targets and promotes building renovations. It advocates behavioral changes, such as reducing winter heating and summer air conditioning, potentially saving 10 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. Additional measures include reducing VAT on energy-efficient heating systems and insulation materials, encouraging remote work, and promoting public transport and cycling. Market-based mechanisms were also introduced to stabilize gas prices, shielding consumers and the broader economy from volatility.
To diversify energy sources, the EU has increased LNG imports by 50 billion cubic meters and non-Russian pipeline gas by 10 billion cubic meters. This expansion demands new infrastructure, including LNG terminals, floating storage and regasification units, and interconnecting pipelines between member states. Estimated investment for this fossil fuel infrastructure stands at €10 billion. REPowerEU also strengthens the EU’s energy platform for joint gas purchases and extends its external energy strategy, seeking partnerships with alternative suppliers such as the United States, Qatar, Algeria, Namibia, Egypt, Israel, and Kazakhstan. Renewable energy targets have been raised, with solar photovoltaic capacity expected to reach 320 GW by 2025 and nearly 600 GW by 2030. New regulations mandate solar panels on public and new buildings. Biomethane production is targeted at 35 billion cubic meters, while green hydrogen production aims for 20 million tons annually half imported and half domestically produced. Three main hydrogen corridors are planned through the Mediterranean, the North Sea, and, where geopolitically feasible, Ukraine.
Supporting these ambitions, the EU is negotiating essential raw material agreements needed for renewable technologies. Total additional investment under REPowerEU is estimated at €210 billion until 2027. Most funding will come from existing instruments like the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), although some will be sourced from the auction of extra carbon emissions permits, a measure that paradoxically allows for short-term emissions increases. While REPowerEU represents a major step toward energy independence and sustainability, the transition demands significant investment and infrastructure development. It must also navigate complex geopolitical realities, raising questions about the balance between energy security and the EU’s broader political and ethical commitments.
Structural Transformation, New Dependencies, and Emerging Risks
REPowerEU signifies a fundamental change in the EU’s post-Ukraine invasion energy strategy. The Kremlin’s weaponization of fossil fuel dependence exposed vulnerabilities that the EU is now determined to overcome. Through a multi-level approach focusing on energy efficiency, diversification, and renewable energy acceleration, the bloc aims to transform its energy landscape. Short-term measures focus on improving energy efficiency through building renovations, incentives for energy-saving technologies, and behavioral change campaigns. In parallel, the EU is investing in alternative energy infrastructure such as LNG terminals and new pipelines from suppliers like Qatar and the United States, demonstrating its ability to adapt to rapidly shifting geopolitical conditions.
In the long term, REPowerEU is intended to enhance the EU’s strategic autonomy. Major projects include expanding solar and wind power integration, developing green hydrogen capacity, and establishing cross-border hydrogen networks. Funding from the RRF underlines the political commitment to making the energy sector the cornerstone of sustainable growth. Yet significant challenges remain. Emergency measures, such as reviving coal-fired plants and expanding LNG infrastructure, risk reinforcing carbon-intensive pathways, creating economic and political pressures that could slow future decarbonization efforts; a phenomenon known as "carbon lock-in." Moreover, reliance on energy suppliers like Azerbaijan, Egypt, and Qatar, countries with poor human rights records raises serious ethical dilemmas, complicating the EU’s stated normative agenda.
At the same time, Europe's new dependence on imported renewable technologies and critical raw materials, particularly from China, illustrates that the transition away from fossil fuels does not eliminate geopolitical risk but shifts it to new domains. This dependency is exacerbated by ongoing trends of deindustrialization and financialization across EU member states, potentially deepening economic and regional inequalities. In addition, the ideological basis of REPowerEU, grounded in the concept of green growth, faces increasing skepticism. Scholars argue that there is little empirical evidence that economic growth can be truly decoupled from environmental degradation. As a result, while REPowerEU is politically and economically ambitious, it may still perpetuate the extractive dynamics that have historically driven ecological crises.
From an energy security perspective, REPowerEU represents a shift from traditional concerns about supply and pricing toward a broader, more holistic framework incorporating sustainability, geopolitical stability, and human security. However, systemic obstacles rooted in global energy market structures and asymmetries continue to impede the vision of an equitable and sustainable energy transition.