Trump 2028: Is It Possible?
U.S. President Donald Trump triumphantly returned to the White House in January, having risen from the ashes of his first term, survived an unprecedented lawfare campaign, and escaped at least two assassination attempts. Whatever one may think of Trump as a politician or a person, his return is undeniably a dramatic comeback story.
Since reclaiming office, among his many bombastic, misleading, and sometimes bizarre statements, Trump has floated the idea of running for a third presidential term in 2028—an idea that some of his political allies have even supported publicly.
This suggestion has fueled yet another news cycle driven by Trump's unpredictability. Pundits on MSNBC and CNN, as well as numerous credentialed analysts, have rushed to explain why a third term is legally impossible or why Trump’s comments represent a “threat to democracy.”
Legally, Trump is constitutionally prohibited from seeking a third term—and it remains unlikely that he truly intends to do so. But if he were to challenge the law and attempt it anyway, the real question becomes: what, if anything, would stop him?
The Law and Its Erosion
The 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution prohibits any individual from serving more than two four-year terms as president. This principle—originally an unwritten norm dating back to George Washington’s refusal to run for a third term—was codified into law after Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected to four terms, dying early in his fourth.
For the amendment to be repealed, two-thirds of Congress would need to support it—an impossibility in today’s deeply polarized political landscape.
Yet even that framework assumes that the rule of law in the U.S. remains intact. Increasingly, that assumption is crumbling.
While signs of institutional decay began under the Obama administration, it was the political establishment’s response to Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory that truly accelerated the erosion of American legal norms. The Russiagate investigation into alleged—but ultimately unproven—collusion, combined with the broader partisan backlash to Trump’s presidency, reshaped the political and legal landscape.
Both the Trump and Biden administrations have shown disregard for Supreme Court rulings. Biden, for example, issued an executive order in 2021 suspending evictions, despite the Court having just ruled that only Congress had such authority. Biden even acknowledged that the order would likely face legal challenges—but signed it anyway.
Similarly, in 2020, the judge overseeing the prosecution of Trump’s former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn initially refused to comply with an appeals court order to dismiss the case. He only relented after Trump issued a pardon.
These examples, among others, would have been unthinkable in the U.S. just a decade ago.
Who Would Stop Him?
Just as the United States' appeals to "international law" and "human rights" have been increasingly exposed as geopolitical tools rather than principles, similar dynamics may be unfolding internally.
If Trump did decide to run again, who could truly stop him?
The judiciary is increasingly politicized. Legal decisions and enforcement often appear arbitrary or selectively applied. Trump, if still in office and wielding the machinery of government, could theoretically attempt to push forward in defiance of the Constitution, especially if backed by political allies and popular support.
At that point, it would no longer be a matter of what is legally correct, but rather what can be enforced—and by whom.
Could He Actually Run Again?
Despite his comments, the likelihood of Trump actually pursuing a third term remains low. Even if he could find a way to override legal constraints, he may lack the will or the stamina for another campaign—and he may not have the public support.
Trump entered 2025 with a strong electoral mandate, having won both the popular vote and the Electoral College—a rare feat for a Republican. Biden’s handling of the Gaza war alienated key voter blocs, particularly Arab and Muslim Americans, helping Trump secure swing states like Michigan.
But Trump’s approval ratings have begun to slip. He failed to fulfill his promise to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, and any escalation with Iran could severely damage his presidency. A worsening economy, driven by a growing trade war with China, could further erode public confidence.
Even among his core supporters, disillusionment is creeping in. Trump is deporting fewer undocumented immigrants than Biden did, a fact that has not gone unnoticed by his base.
Conclusion
Whether you oppose Trump or support him but don't want him to overstay his political welcome, the reality is that a third term is highly unlikely. While the collapse of institutional enforcement may mean there would be no immediate legal barrier to him trying, Trump’s dwindling popularity and the political landscape after the 2026 midterms will likely close the door on such an attempt.
Even now, many who once supported Trump’s anti-establishment agenda are growing disillusioned. Instead of dismantling the "deep state" or radically transforming American governance, Trump has settled into the same patterns that many voters had hoped he would disrupt. The Department of Justice remains largely unchanged. Neoconservatives and career bureaucrats have returned to positions of influence. The wars continue. The border remains open. His top advisors are drawn from the very class he once railed against. This has led to a growing sentiment that Trump has not only failed to “drain the swamp,” but has in many ways become a part of it.
So many historical norms, legal principles, and institutional traditions that once upheld the American system have been shattered over the past decade. The foundations that kept the country functioning are eroding from within—often so rapidly that most fail to recognize it in real time. In such a climate, where unpredictability has become the norm, anything may seem possible. Still, this is one red line that, for now, may remain uncrossed.