U.S. President Donald Trump entered office convinced he could solve the world’s problems—problems he largely attributes to former President Joe Biden. Backed by voters who believed in his “Art of the Deal” diplomacy and the implied threat of overwhelming force, Trump promised a return to a pre-2022 world order, with the United States unchallenged at the helm.
Instead, 137 days into his term, the war in Ukraine remains unresolved despite Trump’s repeated pledge to end it in “24 hours.” Negotiations with Iran are deadlocked, a military operation in Yemen has failed, and his trade war with China is backfiring.
Within a 24-hour period on Wednesday and Thursday, Trump called both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. During the call with Putin, Trump even requested Moscow's help in mediating talks with Iran. The president is now confronting hard limits with America’s three principal geopolitical rivals—and the moment is approaching when he must either escalate, retreat, or accept a new status quo.
Russia and Ukraine
Trump entered the White House confident he could push Russia into a ceasefire, a goal aligning with neoconservative interests seeking a pause to rearm Ukraine. For Trump, a ceasefire would bolster his image as the only president able to make Putin back down—unlike Obama or Biden.
However, Trump misjudged the leverage the U.S. has over Russia, which is virtually nonexistent, and overestimated the influence of his previous rapport with Putin.
His erratic posts on Truth Social—swinging between criticism of Putin and Zelensky, threats to destroy Russia’s economy, and vague warnings of catastrophe—underscore his flailing approach. A recent post cryptically claimed that “bad things” would be happening to Russia if not for him, which was followed days later by attacks on Russian infrastructure, including strikes on strategic bombers and civilian trains.
Trump’s phone call to Putin came just hours after the Russian leader warned of upgrading the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine to a full-scale war aimed at eliminating the Kiev government, branding them as terrorists. In his post about the call, Trump admitted that there would be no immediate peace and that Putin had conveyed to him "strongly" that he would retaliate against Ukraine.
Two items that were noticeably missing from Trump's post was a threat against Putin should he retaliate against Ukraine, or any accusations against Putin that Russia is stringing him along in the peace process, indicating that Trump came away from the phone call fully aware of how serious the situation is and how little cards he actually has to play.
Now fully tied to the Ukraine conflict, Trump may one day witness its collapse—in a room all by himself, perhaps in Mar-a-Lago—much like Biden did with Afghanistan four years ago.
Iran
On March 12th, Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei via the United Arab Emirates. The letter demanded a halt to Iran’s nuclear enrichment, the end of support for allies like Hezbollah and Ansar-Allah, a stop to ballistic missile production, and a finalized agreement within two months—or face consequences.
Those consequences were of course war. But more than a month after the deadline passed, Trump remains at an impasse. Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear program, a right it retains under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Trump, reluctant to go to war and aware his base does not support it, finds himself cornered.
Shortly before Trump’s call with Putin, in which he also asked for Putin's help in the talks with Iran, Khamenei publicly rejected the latest U.S. proposal, which would have temporarily halted enrichment and transferred oversight of Iran’s program to a regional consortium led by the U.S. and Gulf Arab states. Iran’s refusal confirmed that it would not negotiate away its nuclear rights.
This comes on the heels of a failed U.S. bombing campaign in Yemen against Ansar-Allah. The operation lasted nearly two months but achieved little— 7 Reaper drones and two F 18 fighter jets were lost, and U.S. carriers were repeatedly targeted. That failure, seen by some as a prelude to a potential conflict with Iran, leaves Trump with only two options: compromise or walk away—neither of which he can afford.
China
Trump’s imposition of “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2 triggered an immediate tit-for-tat response from China. While Trump administration officials hailed this as a masterstroke of strategic pressure, reality quickly undercut the narrative.
Regardless of assumptions about how China's economy would handle the tariffs, it became evident that the U.S. could not sustain the tariff war. On May 12, a 90-day pause in the escalation was agreed to, driven by growing economic strain and threats to global supply chains—particularly in the auto, defense and tech industries, which relies heavily on Chinese rare earth minerals.
Trump now faces a deadline in August to negotiate a new deal or extend the pause. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently admitted that talks had “stalled.” This was followed by an angry Truth Social post from Trump accusing China of violating the agreement and claiming he had only agreed to the pause because China’s economy was on the verge of collapse.
Early Wednesday, before calling Putin or Khamenei’s comments, Trump was thinking about Chinese President Xi Jinping when he posted about Xi, calling him “VERY TOUGH” and “EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH.” He has also asked the Senate to delay consideration of a bill that would impose 500% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy—a clear effort to avoid deepening tensions with Beijing and saving off a economic crisis in the U.S.
Trump: Weak or Strong?
Trump remains a polarizing figure. Both supporters and critics often struggle to assess him rationally, clouded by deep-seated loyalties or disdain.
If Trump’s strength existed, it stemmed from his position as President of the United States—a role once associated with near-unlimited leverage. But even for those unwilling to accept the emergence of a multipolar world, it is clear that American power has limits, as its always had. Trump, as his past term indicates, is slow to realize this.
Now, facing obstacles on all fronts, Trump is not necessarily weak or irrational. Rather, he is suffering the consequences of overestimating America’s power and underestimating the resolve of its adversaries. Despite his distinct style, Trump has arrived at the same impasse as many U.S. leaders before him—trapped between ambition and reality.