Trump Will Face Difficulties Pivoting To Asia Just As Obama and Biden Did

In 2011 former President Barack Obama famously announced his intention to “pivot to Asia”. The reasoning behind the policy was that while the U.S. had been bogged down in fighting the “Global War on Terror” and had been focused on the Middle East for the decade prior, China was fast on its way to becoming a global superpower that needed to be contained and this needed America’s undivided attention.

Almost a decade and a half later, the United States has yet to successfully pivot. Despite this, the Trump Administration has made clear of its desire to focus on confronting, and possibly even fighting China in the Pacific. However, The U.S. is still heavily committed to the MIddle East, and has been waging a war against Russia by proxy since 2022, with no immediate end in sight that allows the U.S. to extricate themselves. 

History

In the 1970’s, the administration of former President Richard Nixon successfully exploited the Sino-Soviet split and normalized relations with the People's Republic of China, further straining the USSR. in 1971, Henry Kissinger, Nixon's National Security Advisor, would remark at the time about how in 20 years the U.S. would need to become friends with Russia to combat the expected rise of China. 

20 years after this statement the USSR would collapse and the U.S. would largely forget about China in the immediate post Cold War era, instead continuing to focus on NATO expansion and the aftermath of the Gulf War. 

in 1997, Joe Biden, then a Senator, famously quipped when asked about Russia's objections to NATO expansion, sarcastically saying that 'Russia can go join China, or Iran'.

First try under Obama

As the U.S. would spend the 2000’s at war in the Middle East, China’s economy would begin growing at an accelerated speed by 2008, which played a part in the initial policy by the Obama Administration. 

As the U.S. became focused on conflicts in Syria and Ukraine by the mid 2010’s, along with a redeployment of troops to Iraq, China and Russia began becoming closer, something that set off further alarm bells in the U.S. foreign policy establishment. 

Biden's plan

By the time Joe Biden came into office in 2021, and as the U.S. was anticipating waging a proxy war with Russia via Ukraine, the American foreign policy establishment knew that action needed to be taken against this growing Russia-China friendship. However, There were debates on how to go about it. 

Some in America’s establishment argued for making concessions to Russia regarding Ukraine in return for the perceived willingness for Russia to then stay away from China. While others argued for no concessions, as they felt this would embolden China. 

The decision had been made by early 2022, that sanctions against Russia, along with a well armed and trained Ukrainian army would collapse Russia and neutralize them, bypassing the Middle East, which was relatively quiet at the time, and freeing the U.S. to go after China. Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s August 2022 visit to the Island of Taiwan, an effective severing of the U.S. 'One China Policy', shows how the Biden Administration already had their eyes set on China even while the war in Ukraine was ongoing. 

Can Trump do it?

Earlier this month, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth put out an internal memo for the Department of Defense stating that the U.S. military would focus solely on Confronting China. He also made a visit to Japan and the Philippines this past weekend where he also reaffirmed American commitments to defending Taiwan and confronting China.  

President Trump’s insistence on getting Russia to agree to an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine now seems to have more to do with the need of being able to refocus U.S. forces to the Indo-Pacific. It is clear right now however, that Trump is not willing to give any concessions to Russia on Ukraine that would end the war quicker. 

Then there is the Middle East, with Trump signalling he is ready for a long term bombing campaign of Yemen, while giving out no signals he is ready to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq or Syria, while also diverting significant naval and air assets to Diego Garcia and the Indian Ocean in a possible future conflict with Iran, shows the high possibility of getting bogged down in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

Donald Trump has less than 4 years in office. In Just a few weeks, 10 percent of his presidency will have already passed. The clock is ticking, all the while China sits where they are, being able to solely focus on the possibility of confrontation, while the U.S. is still committed all over the world while wanting to focus on an adversary they will need every last bit of resources for. We are not in the “Will there be a war between the U.S. and China” stage, but still on the “Can the U.S. refocus itself to China for their to be a war possible?” stage.

As the saying goes for China’s foreign policy, “Do nothing and win”.