Ukraine's Kursk Incursion: Was it Worth It?

Last August Ukraine launched a surprise attack into Russia’s Kursk region. The images of Ukrainian soldiers wandering around Russian cities and toppling statues of Vladimir Lenin brought lots of hope to Ukraine’s Western sponsors and to their supporters on social media. 

After Ukraine’s much hyped 2023 offensive was conclusively defeated by the Russian’s, and with the fortress city of Avdiivka falling to the Russian’s in February of 2024, going into the summer there was not much to be hopeful about for Ukraine’s supporters. 

Then came the Kursk invasion which saw Ukrainian forces occupy around 1,200 sq km of Russian territory and for a brief moment, even appear to threaten the Kurchatov Nuclear Power Plant, where it is also alleged that the Russian military keeps a stockpile of nuclear warheads nearby to the plant. 

Western reporters paraded through the town of Sudzha and showcased how Ukraine took the fight to Russia.

Russia would eventually contain the invasion, pin the Ukrainians down and last month, just as dramatically the initial attack was, Russian forces conducted an attack, aided by a daring insertion of Russian troops deep behind the front lines using an out of use gas pipeline, and Ukraine’s Kursk invasion was over. Was it all worth it?

What Were Ukraine’s Aims?

Something that has not been confirmed by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky but has been talked about by some Ukrainian media channels and others was that the goal of the Kursk operation was to seize the Kurchatov Nuclear Power Plant so that Ukraine could use this as leverage in negotiations, possibly in trading it for the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. 

The attack in this direction, which got about 20 mi (37 km) from the plant, seems to be the only logical explanation as to why they would attack here. The area near the border where Ukraine attacked is rural, full of tiny farmsteads and hamlets, aside from the small town of Sudzha which had a population of around 6,000 people. 

Whether the nuclear angle is true or not, President Zelensky did come out with some claims about what Ukraine’s aims were after the initial advance had been contained. 

Zelensky, as well as others in the Ukrainian government along with the Western punditry class on social media and cable news that the attack was designed to force Russia to divert its forces to Kursk, and thus taking pressure off the fighting that was happening in Donbass, particularly near the city of Donetsk at the time. 

That did not happen. While Russia did send in some forces, mostly marines and the Chechen-led Akhmat special forces, Russia did not send in large numbers of forces to the theatre for months, and instead deployed enough forces to simply contain the attack, pin it down, and eventually start pushing it back gradually.

What Happened After?

If we look at what Ukraine’s publicly claimed goal was, and see what happened in Donbass after August 6th, when the attack began, it doesn’t appear that it slowed the Russian’s down at all. In fact, it's quite the opposite. 

According to the New York Times, between September and November, Russia took nearly 1500 sq km of territory, mostly in Donbass, which was the fastest pace of advance since the beginning of the conflict in 2022. 

During this time, Russia reached the outskirts of the important city of Pokrovsk, which serves as the logistics hub for the Ukrainian forces in Donbass. 

Russia would take numerous cities and large towns, such as Novogrodivka, Selidovo, Ukrainsk, and Hirnyk to name a few, cities that just a few months prior were considered to be deep in Ukraine’s rear. These cities were taken largely without a fight and were taken relatively intact, compared to what we saw in places like Bakhmut and Avdiivka. 

In October, Russia also took the fortress city of Vuhledar, which had held firm for 2 and a half years and had been a thorn in the Russian army’s side for the entire conflict. Had Vuhledar or any of the other mentioned places had fallen six months prior, it would have caused much panic and recriminations in the Western media, however, the pace of advance was so quick pundits weren’t noticing.

One thing that can be explained why the sudden advance was that Ukrainian troops were deployed from Donbass to Kursk, creating gaps in Ukraine’s frontline.

2025 and Beyond

Even during the winter Russia’s advance continued. Velyka Novosilka, another fortress city in the south fell in January as did Kurakhove, a logistics hub that had been far from the frontline just a few months prior. 

Ukraine kept sending in troops and precious Western supplied equipment into what became another meat grinder for almost seven months. 

If we use the official numbers provided by the Russian Defense Ministry as a baseline, even if we assume it may be overstated to a degree, the number of Ukrainian soldiers who were killed and wounded in Kursk, along with the amount of destroyed Western supplied equipment surpasses Ukraine’s doomed 2023 offensive. 

Was it Worth it?

While Ukraine in 2023 attacked on a largely static front, over a wide area, the Ukrainian army was fighting in some backwoods in Kursk in a relatively tiny area, all the while Russian forced had been on the advance in Donbass. And in the end, they were pushed out just as suddenly as they had entered.

Ukraine, Zelensky, and Ukraine’s cheerleaders online and in the Western media may have gotten joy out of seeing Russian towns and villages fall to Ukraine, it may have “embarrassed” Putin for a time, at least in their eyes, but it accomplished nothing. And embarrassing the opponent doesn't win wars.

Russia didn’t overreact and instead continued pushing through Ukraine’s heavily fortified lines in Central Donbass, swept through towns and cities that weren’t even talked about just a few weeks prior to them falling, and Ukraine became committed to sending in more and more troops, more and more equipment into the meat grinder that chewed them up and eventually spit them back out. 

And now Russia is advancing into the Sumy region of Ukraine, from which Ukraine launched its invasion into Kursk. Creating a new defensive front for Ukraine that wasn't active last summer.

The operation is consistent with Zelensky’s pattern of fighting the war with media optics being the main concern, as opposed to if its actually militarily worth it. And Kursk was no exception. This enterprise, once the history of the war is written, will likely be seen as having sped up Ukraine’s impending defeat. 

The Western media and Ukraine’s fan club and Ukraine themselves will explain this all away, and already have. They’ve moved onto the next distraction nearby in Russia’s Belgorod region, attempting a breakthrough there and are getting nowhere fast. 

Wash, Rinse, Repeat.