Argentines head to the polls on October 26 for a crucial midterm election that will decide if President Javier Milei can continue his radical economic overhaul or if a powerful opposition will bring his agenda to a standstill. The vote serves as a de facto referendum on Milei's presidency, which has achieved a dramatic drop in inflation but at the cost of a severe recession, deep cuts to public spending, and a series of corruption scandals.
The legislative elections will renew half of the 257-seat Chamber of Deputies and a third of the 72-seat Senate. President Milei's party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), holds a minimal presence in Congress with just 37 deputies and 8 senators, forcing him to rely on tenuous alliances to govern. A strong showing by the opposition could consolidate its control, leading to a withdrawal of Milei's special powers and even raising the possibility of impeachment.
Milei, a flamboyant libertarian economist, won office in 2023 on promises to take a "chainsaw" to the status quo. His administration has achieved Argentina's first budget surplus in over a decade and monthly inflation has fallen from a record 25.5% in December 2023 to a three-year low. However, these gains have come with a sharp decline in living standards. Mass consumption has fallen for fifteen consecutive months, and average beef consumption has plummeted, painting a clear picture of how deeply the reforms are biting. His approval ratings have sunk as a result, with disapproval now topping 60%.
The government's momentum has been further slowed by a string of high-level scandals that have tarnished Milei's anti-establishment brand. Leaked audio captured the former head of Argentina’s National Disability Agency accusing the president's sister and closest confidant, Karina Milei, of requesting kickbacks from pharmaceutical companies. In October, a leading Milei-backed candidate, José Luis Espert, suspended his campaign after being charged with money laundering. In the wake of these scandals, Argentina's Congress overrode Milei's veto for the first time to protect disability spending and again later to preserve funding for education and healthcare.
In a significant move, U.S. President Donald Trump has thrown a lifeline to Milei's government. The U.S. Treasury is pursuing a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina to stabilize the peso. However, Trump initially hinted this support was contingent on Milei's success in the midterm vote, a statement that itself caused market jitters and highlighted the fragility of Argentina's economic gains. Many analysts predict a devaluation of the peso after the election, which the government has been propping up within a managed band to contain inflation.
The outcome of Sunday's vote hinges on whether Argentines believe the short-term pain of Milei's economic "shock therapy" is a necessary price to pay for long-term stability, or if the social costs and political scandals have eroded their faith in his libertarian revolution.