Campaigning officially began on Thursday for Bangladesh's pivotal February 12 general election, the first since the 2024 uprising ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The political atmosphere is charged not only with the promise of democratic renewal but also with profound resentment towards neighboring India, whose long-standing interference in Bangladeshi politics has become a central issue. As tens of thousands rallied for frontrunner Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in Sylhet, the shadow of India's support for the autocratic Hasina regime loomed large, shaping a contest that is as much about national sovereignty as it is about political change.
The deep-seated anti-India sentiment palpable on the campaign trail is a direct legacy of New Delhi's foreign policy. For over fifteen years, India unconditionally backed Sheikh Hasina, viewing her Awami League as the guarantor of its regional interests. This support continued even as her rule became increasingly oppressive and election processes were widely criticized. Analysts have described this strategy as putting "all their eggs in one basket," a myopic policy that alienated the Bangladeshi public and made India complicit in propping up an autocrat. The consequence is a nation where India's image has shifted from historical ally to a patron of dictatorship, fanning the very public anger that ultimately forced Hasina from power.
The bilateral relationship fractured completely when Hasina, facing a popular revolution, fled to India in August 2024. New Delhi's decision to grant her refuge, despite Bangladesh's insistence she return to face justice for crimes against humanity, has been perceived as a blatant disregard for Bangladeshi law and sovereignty. This act transformed a domestic political crisis into a major international dispute, with Bangladeshi opposition leaders directly pleading for her extradition. For many voters, India's sheltering of a fugitive leader sentenced to death in absentia is the ultimate symbol of foreign disrespect, making the election a referendum on rejecting external domination.
The election occurs in a tense environment marked by insecurity, including the assassination of anti-Hasina student leader Sharif Osman Hadi, which sparked violent protests against perceived pro-India institutions. Interim leader Muhammad Yunus has warned of a "flood" of online disinformation aimed at destabilizing the process. The main contenders, the BNP and the resurgent Jamaat-i-Islami, are navigating this complex landscape. While their ideologies differ, both are harnessing the public desire for a government free from Indian hegemony. The BNP's Tarique Rahman, returning from exile, frames the vote as a liberation from autocratic rule, a message that implicitly critiques the foreign power that sustained it.
The February 12 vote represents a critical juncture for Bangladesh-India relations. With the Awami League banned from contesting, India is facing the loss of its preferred partner. The likely victors, particularly the historically skeptical BNP, represent an uncertain future for New Delhi. While the election offers a chance to reset ties on a more equitable, state-to-state basis, the campaign is underscored by deep distrust. The outcome will determine whether the two nations can move beyond a "pattern of recrimination" or if the anti-India sentiment cultivated over the Hasina era will harden into a permanent feature of Bangladeshi politics and a lasting setback for Indian influence in the region.