Ecuador's Close-Run Second-Round Presidential Election

Ecuadorians are voting in a closely contested second-round presidential election, with incumbent Daniel Noboa facing leftist rival Luisa González in a race that could reshape the nation’s political and economic future.

Noboa, 37, of the National Democratic Action party, has served as president for just over 16 months after winning a snap election in 2023. His opponent, González, 47, of the Citizens’ Revolution party, narrowly trailed him in the first round of voting in February 2025, losing by a margin of 16,746 votes.

Both candidates have urged their supporters to monitor for potential fraud, with each campaign deploying more than 45,000 observers. The specter of election interference looms large, particularly after the turbulent 2023 race, which was marred by the assassination of a leading candidate.

Polls opened at 07:00 local time (12:00 GMT) and will close at 17:00 (22:00 GMT). Voting is mandatory for adults under 65, with fines of $46 for non-compliance, while participation is optional for those aged 16–17 and over 65. More than 13 million people are eligible to cast ballots.

A Referendum on Security and the Economy

The election is widely seen as a test of Noboa’s handling of Ecuador’s spiraling security crisis and economic stagnation. Once one of Latin America’s safest countries, Ecuador has been ravaged by drug cartels battling for control of cocaine trafficking routes. The homicide rate surged from 6.85 per 100,000 people in 2019 to 38.76 in 2024—a dramatic spike despite a slight decline from 2023’s peak of 46.18.

Noboa declared a state of "internal armed conflict" in January 2024, deploying soldiers to combat gangs and granting himself expanded executive powers. His tough-on-crime policies have drawn criticism from human rights groups, who allege military abuses, including the killing of four minors near an army base.

On the economic front, Noboa has pursued tax hikes and austerity measures, forecasting 4% growth in 2025 if his policies continue. He has also pledged to revitalize the oil sector and compensate victims of recent environmental disasters.

González, meanwhile, has campaigned on restoring social programs from the era of her mentor, former President Rafael Correa. A lawyer and former lawmaker, she would become Ecuador’s first elected female president if victorious.

A Race Too Close to Call

Early results showed Noboa clinging to a narrow lead, with 44.4% of the vote compared to González’s 43.9% after 90% of ballots were counted. González declared a "statistical tie," framing the runoff as a rebuke of Noboa’s governance.

Noboa, a scion of Ecuador’s banana industry, has leveraged his youth and social media savvy to appeal to voters, while González has focused on economic discontent, asking supporters: "Has your life gotten better in these 15 months? Or worse?"

The winner will inherit a nation grappling with rampant violence, a fragile economy, and strained international relations—including the looming deportation of thousands of Ecuadorian migrants from the U.S. González has vowed to demand "respect" from Washington, while Noboa has prioritized security alliances.

As the final votes are tallied, Ecuador awaits a result that could determine whether the country continues on its current path or shifts back toward the leftist policies of the Correa era.