France and Poland to Sign New Security Pact

France and Poland will formalize a new treaty on mutual security guarantees on May 9, as the two nations seek to deepen their defense ties in response to growing concerns over Russia's actions and uncertainty about U.S. commitments to NATO. The agreement, which will replace a 1990s-era treaty, is set to be signed in the French city of Nancy, according to French President Emmanuel Macron.

The new treaty, months in the making, will enhance the defense collaboration between the two European Union members and focus on both military and economic matters. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the pact as a “turning point” for mutual safety guarantees, though he declined to provide specific details. A French diplomatic official noted that the agreement is expected to elevate Franco-Polish relations to the level of France’s key EU partners, such as Italy, Spain, and Germany.

Nuclear Defense and Strategic Shifts

The treaty comes amid heightened fears of Russian aggression and growing concerns over the reliability of U.S. security assurances. As European countries reevaluate their defense strategies, the possibility of a French nuclear umbrella for Poland has become a key talking point. In March, Macron expressed openness to extending France’s nuclear protection to European allies. With around 300 nuclear warheads, France is one of only three NATO members—alongside the U.S. and the U.K.—with such a deterrent.

While the new treaty is expected to include discussions on nuclear deterrence, it is unlikely to result in immediate changes to France's nuclear doctrine. Instead, experts suggest that the agreement may pave the way for greater defense cooperation, including joint projects and evaluations of potential threats.

A Shift in European Defense Dynamics

The treaty underscores a shift in European defense dynamics, as countries like Poland seek to diversify their security partnerships. Poland has become NATO's largest defense spender relative to its GDP, allocating 4.7% of its economic output to defense this year. Despite this, Poland has increasingly looked to European partners like France for military cooperation.

In addition to defense, the treaty could open the door to closer economic ties, with France hoping to play a significant role in Poland’s energy transition away from coal. France also seeks to increase its military equipment sales to Poland, with French defense manufacturers such as Airbus competing for Polish contracts.

Poland’s decision to award the contract for its first nuclear power plant to U.S. company Westinghouse, despite late French lobbying for EDF, highlights the complex nature of the two nations’ relationship. As Poland strengthens its defense and energy ties with the U.S., France sees an opportunity to deepen its presence in Warsaw amidst shifting geopolitical alliances.

The agreement between Macron and Tusk will mark a significant step in the evolving security landscape of Europe as nations like Poland seek greater autonomy in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.