Italians will begin voting on Sunday in a two-day referendum on whether to ease citizenship requirements and roll back a decade-old labor market liberalization. However, concerns are mounting that voter turnout may fall short of the threshold needed to validate the results.
The referendum includes five questions—four on labor reforms and one on citizenship. The labor proposals aim to make it harder for employers to dismiss workers and increase severance pay for those laid off by small businesses, reversing a law passed by a center-left government in 2014.
But the most contentious issue is the citizenship question, which would reduce the residency requirement for naturalization from 10 years to five. Organizers say the change could affect around 2.5 million foreign nationals in Italy.
Italy’s declining birthrate has intensified calls for immigration reform, with economists arguing that more foreign workers are needed to revitalize the stagnant economy. Currently, non-EU citizens must reside in Italy for a decade before applying for citizenship, while EU nationals can apply after just four years.
Riccardo Magi, secretary of the liberal Più Europa party, supports the proposal, calling the current rules "old and unjust." He argues that the change would allow long-term residents—including children born or raised in Italy—to fully integrate into society.
However, opponents, including the centrist Noi Moderati party, argue that citizenship is too complex an issue to be decided by referendum. "It requires in-depth study and parliamentary debate, not simplification," said party vice-president Maria Chiara Fazio.
Despite the high stakes, polls suggest the referendum may fail to meet the required 50% turnout threshold. A Demopolis survey in May projected participation between 31% and 39%, far below what is needed to make the results binding.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and key coalition leaders—including Antonio Tajani (Forza Italia) and Matteo Salvini (Lega)—have indicated they will not cast ballots, though Meloni will visit a polling station in a symbolic gesture.
Opposition leaders, including Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party (PD), accuse the government of discouraging participation. "Meloni fears that even her own voters will turn out," Schlein said.
Analysts say the referendum’s real impact may be political rather than legal. "The opposition’s goal is to demonstrate strength by mobilizing more voters than the 12.3 million who backed the center-right in 2022," said pollster Lorenzo Pregliasco.
With Italy grappling with labor shortages and demographic decline, the debate over immigration and workers' rights shows no sign of fading—regardless of Sunday’s outcome.