Poland’s presidential election is headed for a runoff after a tight first-round vote on Sunday, with exit polls showing pro-European centrist Rafał Trzaskowski and right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki neck-and-neck, each securing around 30% of the vote.
By 5 p.m., voter turnout had reached 50.69%, according to the State Election Commission (PKW), though it remained below the 64.5% recorded in the first round of the 2020 presidential election. More than 28 million Poles were eligible to cast ballots.
Official results are expected by late Monday or Tuesday, but a high turnout could delay final tallies by up to two days, PKW officials cautioned.
The election was marred by isolated incidents, including the deaths of two elderly voters at polling stations in Szczecin and Bielsko-Biała. In the latter city, an aggressive man allegedly stormed a voting site, biting a committee member during a brawl, PKW head Sylwester Marciniak told reporters.
The months-long campaign, which officially began on January 15, was dominated by heated debates over security, migration, defense, and Poland’s stance toward the European Union and the United States. The final days saw controversy engulf both frontrunners.
Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, faced scrutiny over his purchase of an apartment from an elderly man allegedly placed in a nursing home. Critics accused him of failing to honor a commitment to provide care, though he insisted the transaction was legal. “I would have done exactly the same thing,” Nawrocki said in his defense.
Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s mayor and the candidate of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, distanced himself from attack ads produced by a sympathetic NGO, Akcja Demokracja, claiming his campaign had no involvement.
Meanwhile, far-right candidates made unexpected gains. Libertarian Sławomir Mentzen, who opposes abortion and migration, secured 15.4% of the vote, while Grzegorz Braun of the Confederation party—currently under investigation for extinguishing Hanukkah candles in parliament—won 6.2%.
The runoff on June 1 will force voters to choose between starkly divergent visions: Trzaskowski’s pledge to restore democratic norms and Nawrocki’s hardline rhetoric against migration and “woke” values.
An opposition victory could extend political gridlock, as outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has repeatedly clashed with Tusk’s government over judicial reforms and diplomatic appointments.
The election is being closely watched in Europe, where Poland plays a key role in supporting Ukraine against Russia. A Nawrocki win could embolden PiS and disrupt Tusk’s agenda, analysts warn.
As the campaign shifts to the runoff, Trzaskowski will seek to consolidate support from centrist and left-wing voters, while Nawrocki aims to rally Mentzen’s base. For Poland, the choice will shape its trajectory for years to come.