The Balkan in 2025: Historic Powder Keg Waiting to Explode?
The Balkans in 2025 are teetering on the edge of a serious geopolitical crisis. A region historically marked by volatility, the recent formation of military alliances between Hungary and Serbia on one side, and Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo on the other, has raised alarm bells across Europe. These developments, occurring in rapid succession within a single month, suggest a dangerous shift toward militarization and heightened confrontation.
Military Alliances Formed
On March 18, Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo signed a trilateral security cooperation agreement. This pact—encompassing joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and mutual defense—was intended to bolster their regional security. But in Belgrade, the move was seen as a direct provocation, prompting a swift response in the form of a military alliance with Hungary, further escalating regional tensions, Turkey has also stated it will give direct techinical and arms support to Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo.
This sudden arms buildup and the reorganization of alliances have reignited fears of a broader regional arms race, echoing the darkest chapters of Balkan history.
Serbia in Turmoil
Domestically, Serbia has been rocked by ongoing protests since November 2024, following the collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad, which killed 16 people. Public outrage led to the resignation of President Aleksandar Vučić, marking a significant political turning point. The protests—led by university students of diverse ideological and ethnic backgrounds—reflect deep-seated frustration with governance and corruption.
Although Miloš Vučević resigned shortly thereafter and Đuro Macut was appointed as an interim leader, the new cabinet largely mirrors the old, signaling little actual change in policy. Accusations of authoritarianism, media suppression, and foreign interference have dogged the previous administration, and trust in government remains dangerously low.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Fragile Peace Shattered
One of the most serious crises since the Dayton Accords is now unfolding in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The December 2024 arrest of Security Minister Nenad Nešić on corruption charges triggered a wave of ethnic tension, especially from Bosnian Serb leaders, who claim political persecution. Ironically, these same leaders face ongoing corruption and racketeering investigations from within their own jurisdictions.
The situation is particularly delicate in Republika Srpska, where nationalist rhetoric is again on the rise, threatening the fragile unity of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina—a multiethnic state home to Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs.
Regional Unrest Across the Balkans
The unrest is not isolated to Serbia and Bosnia. In North Macedonia, a nightclub fire in Kočani that killed 59 people in March sparked mass protests, as the venue had been ordered closed due to safety violations. Government negligence and corruption are once again in the spotlight, with several officials already under arrest.
In Montenegro, a mass shooting on New Year’s Day claimed 14 lives, shaking national morale. Although the government has so far avoided large-scale protests, public dissatisfaction is palpable, and tensions are simmering just below the surface.
Even Greece is not immune. Ongoing labor strikes and violent clashes with police over wages, working conditions, and cost-of-living pressures have persisted since 2023 due to disasters and mismanagement, contributing to a sense of regional instability.
Economic Pressure and Public Discontent
Across the Balkans, retail boycotts and consumer anger are on the rise. Allegations of price-fixing and widespread inflation have undermined public trust in both business and government institutions. While a full-scale "Balkan Spring" akin to the Arab Spring of 2011 remains unlikely, the region is experiencing a deep crisis of legitimacy, governance, and economic inequality.
The Kosovo Flashpoint
In Kosovo, the situation remains tense. The 2023 clashes between Serbs and Albanians have only worsened, and the KFOR mission has increased its presence in the region to prevent further escalations. Peace talks have made little progress, and the prospect of a renewed conflict in the north of Kosovo looms large.
International Interests and Power Plays
External powers are not standing idly by. Russia, China, and Turkey are all exerting influence in the Balkans:
China has made significant economic investments in Serbia, and is accused of political lobbying behind the scenes.
Turkey’s President Erdogan has cultivated ties with Bosnia, Albania, and Croatia, further complicating the regional balance.
Meanwhile, the European Union appears increasingly outmaneuvered. Its influence in Hungary is waning, and its capacity to steer Balkan affairs is weakening at a critical juncture.
A Delicate Future
The Balkans are at a crossroads. With military alliances forming, governments under pressure, and foreign powers circling, the risk of a miscalculation triggering a broader conflict cannot be ignored.
Yet, there is still a path forward. The resolution to this crisis lies not in weapons or alliances, but in the ability of regional leaders and citizens to reform institutions, address legitimate grievances, and restore public trust.
As history has shown time and again, when the Balkans burn, the consequences are never confined to the region. The world would be wise to pay close attention.