Netanyahu's Political Survival on the Line as Israel Votes in Tight Race

The election pits Netanyahu against Eisenkot amid a rightward shift and calls for accountability
Netanyahu shared a photo of himself placing a handwritten note at the Western Wall, captioning it as his evening prayers there for the "victory of the people of Israel."
Netanyahu shared a photo of himself placing a handwritten note at the Western Wall, captioning it as his evening prayers there for the "victory of the people of Israel."[@netanyahu / X]
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Israelis began voting on Tuesday in a closely contested parliamentary election that could determine Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future after years of war, domestic divisions and an increasingly right-wing political landscape.

The vote is the first since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and comes amid disputes over security accountability, judicial reforms and the treatment of Palestinians.

A Close Coalition Contest

Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. local time and will close at 10 p.m., with approximately 7.3 million Israelis eligible to vote, including 330,000 first-time voters.

Opinion polls indicate a narrow contest between Netanyahu's Likud party and its right-wing allies and an opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, has emphasised his wartime leadership and relationship with US President Donald Trump, who has endorsed his re-election.

Eisenkot has challenged Netanyahu's handling of national security and promised greater accountability for the failures preceding the October 2023 attacks.

Neither candidate has a clear path to securing a governing majority in the 120-seat parliament.

Netanyahu could again depend on far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, while Eisenkot has ruled out forming a coalition with Arab-led parties.

However, analysts suggest those parties could potentially support an Eisenkot-led minority government.

Approximately 13% of voters remain undecided, according to research from the Israel Democracy Institute.

Failure to establish a coalition could leave Netanyahu serving as caretaker prime minister until another election next year.

Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot being greeted by a crowd in the Israeli city of Ashdod.
Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot being greeted by a crowd in the Israeli city of Ashdod.[@gadi_eisenkot / X]

Regional Wars and Political Divisions

The election follows Israeli military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, including this year's joint US-Israeli war against Iran.

Gaza health authorities report that Israeli attacks have killed approximately 74,000 Palestinians since October 2023.

Netanyahu also faces an ongoing corruption trial involving bribery, fraud and breach of trust, allegations he denies.

His government's judicial overhaul and disputes over ultra-Orthodox military conscription have further polarised Israeli politics.

Despite differences over leadership and governance, both major political camps broadly favour right-wing security policies.

Eisenkot opposes a two-state solution but has criticised escalating settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

Analysts argue that replacing Netanyahu could improve institutional accountability without substantially changing Israel's policies toward Palestinians.

With coalition negotiations potentially decisive, the election will test whether opposition to Netanyahu can overcome the country's fragmented political landscape.

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