Russia's 2015 Syria Intervention: Hybrid Warfare Analysis
Introduction to Hybrid Warfare
War is generally characterized by violence, destruction, and death in an area by military force. In the 21st century, most wars are no longer declared or conducted conventionally. Instead, conflicts are triggered by covert agents using military, non-military forces, media, information technology, NGOs, non-state actors, intelligence agencies, economics, propaganda, ambiguity, terrorism, and insurgency movements. The blurring of the methods of fighting, the actors fighting, and the technologies used has resulted in a wide range of diversity and complexity in conflict. This condition is known as Hybrid Warfare.
How does Hybrid Warfare Works?
Hybrid Warfare combines different methods of warfare, including conventional and unconventional capabilities, such as irregular tactics and formations, acts of terrorism, information warfare, criminal acts, etc., to achieve synergistic effects in the physical and psychological dimensions in the battle space. In its application, hybrid warfare uses a variety of power tools, such as political, economic, military, asymmetric, and civilian. In addition, it also includes information tools such as diplomacy, terrorism, proxies, and economics to influence the order of society.
Hybrid Warfare can be carried out by state and non-state actors to achieve certain goals, such as regime change, territorial control, or defeating an enemy without having to wage a conventional open war. Hybrid warfare blurs the lines between conventional and unconventional warfare. It can blur the line between war and peace, making it difficult for a state or actor to determine what it is facing and how to respond appropriately. Hybrid warfare strategies not only allow states or actors to defeat opponents using unconventional forces, but also allow actors to avoid the responsibilities of international legal rules.
Russia's Military Doctrine: Gerasimov Doctrine
In 2013, Russia's Chief of General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov published a modern warfare document stating the importance of using nonmilitary methods in contemporary conflicts. Gerasimov argued for the necessity of Russian intervention in politically unstable regions that border or have strategic importance to Russia. His ideas influenced Russian military doctrine, and became known as the “Gerasimov Doctrine”. This doctrine became the main framework of Russian hybrid warfare. Russian hybrid warfare focuses on the deployment of special forces, economic warfare, sabotage, espionage, blurring of combatants and non-combatants, to achieve political and strategic goals. Chvvis (2017) in “Understanding Russian Hybrid Warfare and What Can Be Done About It” states, the Russian hybrid warfare doctrine has three main characteristics:
Reducing the use of conventional force by utilizing other methods of an unconventional nature
Consistent, due to the blurring of lines between war and peace in hybrid warfare
Population-centric to utilize and influence the general public through information and proxies.
The success and strategy of Russian hybrid warfare is crucial, especially in the advancement of both countries' military technology, strategy and tactics through experience during conflicts. When looking at the military history of Middle Eastern countries, it is clear that most countries in the region have poor experience in modern conflicts, despite the massive quantity of troops and defense equipment. This can be explained by the poor quality of troops and defense equipment, but on the other hand, poor military management and command greatly affect the success of the country's military in military operations.
Real Life Cases of Hybrid Warfare
For example, Saudi Arabia, with the quantity and quality of troops and modern defense equipment, still had difficulty in suppressing the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who were much weaker. Meanwhile, the Syrian government's military at the beginning of the conflict was highly fragmented with many officers joining the opposition. This led to chaos in the management and command structure of the Syrian military. In addition, the quality of the Syrian government's troops and military equipment was also a major weakness. Therefore, in 2015, President Assad visited Russia in order to persuade Russia to send military aid to Syria to help fight terrorists. Russia's involvement and support in weapons, defense equipment, and military forces is the key to the survival of the Assad government. In the face of the highly complex Syrian conflict, Russia decided to implement a hybrid war strategy. The joint military operation conducted by Syria and Russia succeeded in retaking cities previously controlled by ISIS.
Impacts of Hybrid Warfare
On the other hand, Russia's hybrid war in the Syrian conflict also has negative impacts. One of the characteristics of hybrid warfare is aggressiveness and unconventional methods that target non-combatants or civilians. Methods such as propaganda, disinformation, and information manipulation can trigger divisions that lead to identity conflicts in the region that are already happening, so these methods further increase the intensity of identity conflicts, such as those between Sunni-Shiite groups, Christian minorities, and ethnic Kurds in Syria.
In addition, this strategy also causes great damage to the economy and society. Hybrid warfare is a combination of diverse operations, resources, and military resources aimed at maximizing non-violent economic and political leverage to reform an enemy government, movement, or cause. The Russian Air Force is suspected of deliberately focusing more on targeting Syrian rebel positions than ISIS extremists. The deliberate positioning of the rebels in the middle of civilian areas is a method of Russian hybrid warfare. By bombarding their positions, internal divisions will arise where the civilian population feels unsafe with the presence of rebel forces that can endanger their lives because they are targeted by the military.
Hybrid Warfare Success
Russia's involvement in Syria has had a significant impact on both Russia, Syria and the geopolitics of the Middle East region. The hybrid warfare strategy, which combines conventional and unconventional methods such as information warfare, diplomacy, the use of special forces, as well as limited military operations, has enabled Russia to achieve its strategic and political objectives in the region. By implementing a hybrid warfare strategy, Russia managed to defend its ally amidst resistance from opposition and terrorist groups. This success not only strengthened Syria's position, but also managed to maintain and expand Russia's geopolitical influence in the Middle East, challenging the dominance of the United States and its allies in the region.