The Burden of Trump
As the unofficial start of the campaign sprint kicked off on Labor Day Monday, President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity is imperiling Republican chances of maintaining their narrow majorities in Congress with just two months before November’s midterm elections. Midterm elections, above all, are a referendum on the occupant of the White House, according to election experts, and that truism is even more pronounced in the era of Trump. The latest nationwide poll conducted by Focaldata for the Financial Times found just 33 per cent of registered voters approved of Trump’s performance as president, the lowest number recorded since the FT first started asking the question in May and a three point drop from the previous month.
The president’s approval rating among Republican voters also slipped by more than two points, to 72 per cent, another fresh low for the FT survey. An NBC News Decision Desk survey conducted from August 20 to September found Trump’s overall approval rating landing at 36 per cent, marking a record NBC polling low this term. His net disapproval is nearly twice what it was at the same point in 2018, when Democrats gained 40 seats in the House.
Voters Sour on Economy, Tariffs and the Iran War
The poll suggested that voters’ darkening sentiment on the economy and the cost of living was to blame for Trump’s dismal numbers, with most of those polled rejecting the president’s tariffs and trade policy. Nearly two thirds of registered voters told pollsters the economy was heading in the wrong direction, and 57 per cent said they were financially worse off under the Trump presidency, a four point increase over last month. Among Republican voters, just 53 per cent said they approved of the president’s handling of jobs and the economy, a nearly eight point drop from the previous month.
On trade, 56 per cent of registered voters, including more than 60 per cent of independents and nearly one-third of Republicans, said they disapproved of Trump’s latest decision to impose a 50 per cent tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods. The move prompted retaliatory tariffs from Ottawa of up to 50 per cent on US imports, escalating the trade war and raising concerns about higher prices for consumers. The survey comes as the president appears unable to end his war in Iran, which has driven up US borrowing costs and prices for fuel and consumer goods over the past six months. On Friday, the US price of diesel hit an all time high of $5.85 a gallon, according to the AAA motoring group, threatening to send another wave of inflation through the world’s biggest economy.
Democratic Enthusiasm Surges as Party Identification Shifts
Democrats express more enthusiasm about voting than Republicans, a finding backed up by robust Democratic turnout in recent special and primary elections. Among Democrats, 46 per cent described themselves as very motivated to vote in the midterm elections, while among Republicans, only 31 per cent felt the same way. Registered voters say they prefer Democratic candidates to Republican candidates by five percentage points. New Gallup data shows Democrats holding a significant advantage in party identification: 49 per cent of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared to 39 per cent who identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.
This 10 point Democratic advantage matches the margin from the first quarter of the year and marks the largest lead either party has held in Gallup’s quarterly tracking since at least 2015. The figures represent a reversal from the end of 2024, when Republicans and Republican leaning independents held a 47 per cent to 43 per cent advantage over Democrats. Underlying metrics show that 31 per cent of Americans now identify outright as Democrats, while 25 per cent identify as Republicans. Democrats also have the weight of history in their favour: the incumbent president’s party has lost House seats in all but two midterm elections since 1938.
Republicans Face Historic Losses in Key Battlegrounds
Republicans could be facing “historic losses” in the upcoming midterms, a top strategist has warned, as polling paints a bleak picture for Trump’s party in key battleground Senate races. According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling, the GOP is down 8 points in North Carolina, 7.5 points in Georgia, 2.6 points in Ohio, 2.3 points in Maine, 1.9 points in Texas, and 2 points in Alaska and New Hampshire. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, which updated its averages Sunday, has Democrats ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, Maine, Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Texas and Alaska, with Republicans leading only in Iowa, Kansas and Florida.
Democrats need to flip four Republican held seats and hold all of their own to take control of the chamber, which Republicans currently control 53-47. Silver’s averages show Democrats leading in exactly four GOP held races, putting the party within reach of the four seats it needs, but with little room for error. Silver’s findings echo the Cook Political Report, which has shifted six key battleground races in Democrats’ favour since April. Texas and Iowa both moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up this week. In the House, where Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 edge, Democrats are favoured to win control. The party could net as many as 10 additional seats based solely on redrawn maps after winning an unprecedented mid decade redistricting war.
Trump’s Dallas Convention Gambit Could Backfire
Trump has put himself at the heart of the Republican campaign heading into the midterms. The Republican National Committee will this coming week hold an unprecedented two day midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, headlined by the president, to try to drum up support from voters. Enter “Trumpapalooza,” the party’s first-ever midterm convention and the president’s clearest attempt yet to inject himself squarely at the centre of the election and position himself as the party’s saviour. Never mind that Trump’s low approval rating has been an anchor weighing on the GOP, with the potential to drag down midterm candidates. The convention risks tying Republican candidates more tightly to Trump at a time when some in the party believe they need distance from the president amid polls showing voters disapprove of his performance on everything from tariffs to the Iran war and inflation.
The FT poll suggests the strategy may backfire: 46 per cent of voters, including more than half of independents, said Trump was making it harder for Republican congressional candidates to win in November. Forty seven per cent of independents said a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate. Several GOP candidates in close House and Senate races remain noncommittal about attending the convention, while some have made clear they won’t be there, including Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who is running in one of the most pivotal races to decide control of the Senate.
What a Democratic Victory Would Mean for Trump’s Final Years
If Democrats win a majority in the US House of Representatives, as appears likely, the party would be able to open damaging investigations into Trump’s administration while forcing the White House to compromise on most legislation. Party leaders have already vowed to launch probes into what they describe as Trump’s corruption. A Democratic majority in the Senate could block many of Trump’s nominees, including any Supreme Court justices in the event of a high court vacancy. Prediction market data shows Democrats winning control of the House at approximately 85 per cent probability, while the Senate remains closer to a toss up.
Bank of America has warned that if Democrats sweep both chambers, US stocks could fall more than 10 per cent, the dollar could weaken, bond yields could decline, and the AI bubble could face a significant correction. The coming weeks will determine whether Republicans can overcome the profound headwinds they face, or whether Trump’s unpopularity proves to be the anchor that drags his party to defeat in what could be a defining moment for the final two years of his presidency.