Sanctions likely lifted by December 2025
US Ambassador Tom Barrack announced on June 29 that sanctions on Turkey’s defense sector, imposed over its 2020 purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system are expected to end by year’s end. President Donald Trump and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will direct their foreign ministers to finalize a solution, with Congress backing an "intelligent resolution." Barrack emphasized both nations’ readiness to resolve the five-year stalemate, stating, "Enough. We have to put that aside".
Roots of the rift
The dispute erupted when Washington removed Turkey from the F-35 program and imposed CAATSA sanctions, arguing the S-400 could compromise stealth fighter technology. This move strained NATO relations, though Turkey insists the Russian system addresses urgent defense needs. Since March 2025, Erdoğan has pushed for Turkey’s reinstatement to the F-35 program and approval to buy 40 new F-16s, noting sanctions had "eased" under Trump’s renewed engagement.
Trade ambitions drive diplomacy
Erdoğan directly links defense cooperation to a bilateral trade target of $100 billion, tripling 2023’s $32.5 billion. At Tuesday’s NATO summit meeting, he told Trump that joint defense projects would "significantly boost trade," citing energy, tourism, and technology as growth sectors. Turkey’s 2024 tourism surge (1.4 million US visitors) and space-industry collaborations illustrate this potential.
Regional strategy and alternatives
While pursuing US reconciliation, Turkey continues talks with Germany, Britain, Spain, and Italy to acquire 40 Eurofighter Typhoons. Ambassador Barrack framed the Iran-Israel ceasefire as a chance to build a "new road" for Middle East stability, with Turkey as a pivotal player. Resolving the sanctions issue could strengthen Ankara’s role in regional security dialogues, including Gaza humanitarian efforts.