US Assassinations in a Post-Assad Syria: What's Going On, and What Does it Mean for Syria?

U.S. Airstrikes

On January 30 and February 15, the United States carried out airstrikes in Syria, targeting individuals identified as Al-Qaeda operatives and leaders, according to statements from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). The precision strikes targeted the individuals while they were traveling in vehicles, with no reported collateral damage or additional casualties.

The newly established HTS-led Syrian administration has not issued any response or statement regarding these attacks.

According to U.S. officials, the targeted operatives were considered high-risk and had been active in Syria for over 13 years, fighting against both the former Assad government and American-backed Kurdish forces in the country's northeast. Their operations came to an end when they were struck by a Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM).

The recent U.S. airstrikes in Syria raise important questions: Why has the new Syrian administration remained silent about foreign military operations on its soil? How were these targeted individuals able to move freely without apparent fear—until the U.S. struck them?

The Former Captive

Ahmed Al-Sharaa, more commonly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, was initially a member of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. He was detained by U.S. forces but later released, after which he returned to his militant activities. As the conflict in Syria escalated, he joined ISIS but later defected to form a faction aligned with Al-Qaeda, the al-Nusrah Front. By 2017, he severed ties with Al-Nusrah and formed Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group that went on to wage fierce battles against both ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates. Some of the most brutal clashes of the Syrian civil war involved HTS fighters executing ISIS prisoners and running over fleeing militants with tanks.

By 2024, HTS operated independently, without formal ties to any global or regional terrorist movement. However, questions remain about its role in post-war Syria and how its presence factors into ongoing foreign military operations.

While Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) officially distanced itself from global terrorist networks, its ranks contained elements that some would describe as “radioactive.” The Turkistan Islamic Party, an Uyghur militant group designated as a terrorist organization by China, the United States, and Russia, maintained military formations within HTS. Additionally, certain Chechen factions, labeled as terrorist organizations by Moscow, also operated under the HTS command structure. Despite formal rejections on an organizational level, operational and regional ties between HTS and Al-Qaeda remained in certain areas.

However, as of 2024, HTS and its associated factions no longer formally exist. Many of these groups were either absorbed into the restructured Ministry of Defense of the new 'Free Syria' or effectively dissolved. Despite this, remnants of these groups continue to be considered armed and dangerous—sometimes even active threats. This context helps explain the lengths to which the United States has gone to target Al-Qaeda-linked operatives in Syria, as seen in the recent airstrikes.

Seeking Legitimacy

Since the fall of Assad, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been actively seeking regional and international recognition, taking steps to present itself as a pragmatic political force rather than a terrorist group. In one notable case, when an Egyptian fighter within HTS launched a media campaign against Egypt’s government and military—going so far as to form a political party aimed at “liberating” Egypt—HTS swiftly arrested him. He has not been seen or heard from since. This move was widely interpreted as a signal to Cairo that HTS seeks cooperative relations with the Egyptian government rather than confrontation.

Similarly, Syria’s new administration has also engaged in open negotiations with multiple nations, including Germany, Russia, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. As a result, HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa has become a target of hostility and criticism from certain jihadist factions that once fought alongside him. Among extremist circles, he is viewed as a traitor, with some referring to him derogatorily as "Jewlani." However, most of the HTS supporter base continues to stand by Jolani's political overtures, citing a need to open the Syrian economy and rebuild the country.

The Unholy Alliance

There is growing speculation in the Arab world that Al-Sharaa may be covertly providing intelligence on Al-Qaeda affiliated operatives to the United States, facilitating their elimination. The silence of the new Syrian government regarding recent U.S. airstrikes further fuels this perception. Whether or not Damascus directly approved these operations, the targeting of Al-Qaeda figures serves its interests—removing radical elements that could obstruct Syria’s efforts to gain broader regional and international acceptance.

Cooperation between Al-Sharaa and the United States is not new—it dates back years to joint efforts against ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Syria. Even before the fall of the Assad dynasty, the U.S. had acknowledged indirect, behind-the-scenes coordination with HTS in counterterrorism operations.

For most jihadist groups, this kind of collaboration is seen as a grave betrayal. In their view, working with "Crusaders", as Osama Bin Laden famously called the United States, is considered heresy. This makes Al-Sharaa a target. However, he appears unbothered by these accusations, prioritizing strategic alliances over ideological purity.

Power Struggles and Shadow Wars

The crackdown on extremist factions within Syria’s new administration is likely to continue—whether carried out by the Syrian government itself or through foreign operations with tacit approval from Damascus. However, armed opposition to the new government remains limited. Active threats include remnants of Assad loyalist cells, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the newly formed Islamic Resistance in Syria, an Iran-backed majority Shiite and Alawite militia that seeks to fight against the new HTS-led Government and the Israeli occupation in Syria's southwestern Daraa Governorate.

Meanwhile, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) has effectively ceded its position to Damascus, and while the Kurdish 'Syrian Democratic Forces' (SDF) remain cautious and assertive, they are engaged in negotiations with the new leadership and have shown no intent to cross the Euphrates in defiance of the new order, despite sporadic clashes taking place.

Ahmed Al-Sharaa has emerged as Syria’s new ruler, and he appears determined to maintain his position as transitional president for the next four years—if not beyond. His grip on power may depend on ensuring that former allies who could challenge his authority are “taken care of,” even if they once fought by his side during the civil war.